To develop a prediction tool for recurrence and survival in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients following surgically curative resections. We developed a reliable prediction model for CRC patients after surgically curative resections. Using clinicopathologic factors, novel prediction models were constructed with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.841 and 0.876 for DFS and CSS, respectively. Between January 2004 and December 2007, 376 CRC patients were investigated at the Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases. Patients with at least 1 of the following criteria were excluded: preoperative treatment, synchronous distant metastasis, noncurative resection, and incomplete follow-up after operation. All patients were retrospectively analyzed. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop a prediction model for disease-free survival (DFS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). In univariate and multivariate analyses of clinicopathologic factors, the following factors had significant correlation with DFS and CSS: tumor location, preoperative serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), pathologically defined tumor invasion, and lymph node metastasis. Using these variables, novel prediction models were constructed by the logistic regression model with AUC of 0.840 and 0.876 for DFS and CSS, respectively. The prediction models were validated by external datasets in an independent patient group. This study showed novel and reliable personalized prognostic models, integrating not only TNM factors but also tumor location and preoperative serum CEA to predict patient prognosis. These individualized prediction models could help clinicians in the treatment of postoperative CRC patients.
Key words: Prediction tool -Colorectal cancer -Metastasis -SurvivalCorresponding author: Norikatsu Miyoshi, MD, PhD, Department of Surgery, Osaka Medical Center for Cancer and Cardiovascular Diseases, 1À3À3 Nakamichi, Higashinari-ku, Osaka 537-8511, Japan.Tel.: þ81 6 6972 1181, Fax: þ81 6 6981 8055, E-mail: miyosi-no@mc.pref.osaka.jp
406Int Surg 2016;101 I n developed countries with an ever-increasing aging population, cancer is one of the most prominent illnesses in terms of both public welfare and health measures. Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a frequent malignancy and one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths.1 The metastatic dissemination of the primary tumors directly relates to patient survival, and distant metastases are a major cause of death in CRC. Systemic chemotherapy is the standard approach to treat metastatic CRC, and the last decade showed remarkable progress in therapies for CRC. Many new drugs are currently in use for metastatic CRC, and the average median survival duration has increased in recent years largely due to the availability of new active agents, such as irinotecan, oxaliplatin, cetuximab, and bevacizumab.2-4 Although many patients with metastatic CRC are hard to be cured, a subset of patients with liver-or lung-isolated disease have been reported to be potentially curable with surgery. 5,6 Develo...