Phase tipping: how cyclic ecosystems respond to contemporary climate

Alkhayuon, Hassan; Tyson, Richard V.; Wieczorek, Sebastian

doi:10.1098/rspa.2021.0059

Cited by 25 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 91 publications

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“…[ 27 ]). Therefore our work links better with the recently identified concept of phase tipping or partial tipping (P-tipping) in which a transition can only occur at a certain phase in the trajectory [ 28 , 29 ]. As ecosystems are usually more complex and multidimensional, the stressors limiting establishment (i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

A probabilistic framework for windows of opportunity: the role of temporal variability in critical transitions

Belzen

Fivash

et al. 2022

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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The establishment of young organisms in harsh environments often requires a window of opportunity (WoO). That is, a short time window in which environmental conditions drop long enough below the hostile average level, giving the organism time to develop tolerance and transition into stable existence. It has been suggested that this kind of establishment dynamics is a noise-induced transition between two alternate states. Understanding how temporal variability (i.e. noise) in environmental conditions affects establishment of organisms is therefore key, yet not well understood or included explicitly in the WoO framework. In this paper, we develop a coherent theoretical framework for understanding when the WoO open or close based on simple dichotomous environmental variation. We reveal that understanding of the intrinsic timescales of both the developing organism and the environment is fundamental to predict if organisms can or cannot establish. These insights have allowed us to develop statistical laws for predicting establishment probabilities based on the period and variance of the fluctuations in naturally variable environments. Based on this framework, we now get a clear understanding of how changes in the timing and magnitude of climate variability or management can mediate establishment chances.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

A probabilistic framework for windows of opportunity: the role of temporal variability in critical transitions

Belzen

Fivash

et al. 2022

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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“…Furthermore, the C–R interaction we consider in the work also exhibits limit cycle oscillations for other parameter values. The occurrence of a transition event in the presence of oscillatory behaviour is important to study, but can be associated with phase induced-tipping [62], which is not the focus of this work.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critical rates of climate warming and abrupt collapse of ecosystems

Kaur

Dutta

2022

Proc. R. Soc. A.

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In the age of climate warming, comprehension of ecosystems’ future is one of the pressing challenges to humanity. While most studies on climate warming focus on the ‘magnitude of change’ of the Earth’s temperature, the ‘rate’ at which it is increasing cannot be ruled out. Rapid warming has already caused sudden ecosystem transitions at numerous biodiversity hot spots; a mechanistic understanding of such transitions is crucial. Here, we study a slow–fast consumer–resource ecosystem interacting in rapid warming scenarios. Employing geometric singular perturbation theory, we find that while a gradual change in mean temperature may accord population persistence, a critical warming rate can drive the resource’s sudden collapse, termed a warming-induced abrupt transition. This further triggers the bottom-up effect, resulting in the extinction of the consumer. The difference between the optimum temperature of the resource’s growth rate and the habitat temperature is crucial in deciding the critical rate of warming. Consequently, species inhabiting extreme temperature regions are more susceptible to warming-induced collapse than those within intermediate temperature ranges. We find that stochastic fluctuations in the system can advance warming-induced transitions, and the efficacy of generic early warning signals to anticipate sudden transitions is challenged.

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“…where B (A + ) is the basin of attraction of A + . In the words of Ref [25], the attractor A − is partially basinunstable along the parameter path ∆λ := [λ − , λ + ]. Beside the phenomena illustrated in Ref.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weak tracking in nonautonomous chaotic systems

Alkhayuon,

Ashwin

2020

Preprint

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Previous studies have shown that rate-induced transitions can occur in pullback attractors of systems subject to "parameter shifts" between two asymptotically steady values of a system parameter. For cases where the attractors limit to equilibrium or periodic orbit in past and future limits of such an nonautonomous systems, these can occur as the parameter change passes through a critical rate. Such rate-induced transitions for attractors that limit to chaotic attractors in past or future limits has been less examined. In this paper, we identify a new phenomenon is associated with more complex attractors in the future limit: weak tracking, where a pullback attractor of the system limits to a proper subset of an attractor of the future limit system. We demonstrate weak tracking in a nonautonomous Rössler system, and argue there are infinitely many critical rates at each of which the pullback attracting solution of the system tracks an embedded unstable periodic orbit of the future chaotic attractor. We also state some necessary conditions that are needed for weak tracking.

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Phase tipping: how cyclic ecosystems respond to contemporary climate

Cited by 25 publications

References 91 publications

A probabilistic framework for windows of opportunity: the role of temporal variability in critical transitions

A probabilistic framework for windows of opportunity: the role of temporal variability in critical transitions

Critical rates of climate warming and abrupt collapse of ecosystems

Weak tracking in nonautonomous chaotic systems

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