This paper puts forward the idea that the dynamics of national innovation systems is driven by the coevolution of two main dimensions: innovative capability and absorptive capacity. The empirical analysis employs a broad set of indicators measuring national innovative capabilities and absorptive capacity for a panel of 98 countries in the period 1980-2008, and makes use of panel cointegration analysis to investigate long-run relationships and coevolution patterns among these variables. The results indicate that the dynamics of national systems of innovation is driven by the coevolution of three innovative capability variables (technological output, scientific output, innovative input), on the one hand, and three absorptive capacity factors (income per capita, infrastructures and international trade), on the other.Keywords: national systems of innovation; innovative capability; absorptive capacity; economic growth and development; coevolution; panel cointegration analysis.JEL codes: O1, O3, O4 1
IntroductionThe study of national innovation systems (NIS) has attracted considerable attention in the last two decades (Lundvall, 2007). While a substantial amount of research has been devoted to the investigation of cross-country differences in technological capabilities and the related institutional and policy framework, much less attention has so far been given to the analysis of the dynamics of national systems over time.This is unfortunate, since evolution and change represent indeed key aspects of Schumpeterian research, which did in fact constitute some of the crucial motivations for the original development of the NIS approach. The lack of focus on dynamic aspects is partly explained by the non-availability of time series data for a sufficiently long period of time, and partly by the analytical and methodological difficulties that are faced when it comes to model and empirically analyse the dynamics of complex evolving systems (Foster, 1991).The Schumpeterian literature on innovation and economic growth does however provide important insights and key building blocks for developing an analytically stronger framework to study NIS dynamics. First, idea-based new growth models point out the important role of national innovation capability for the growth of the economic system (Romer, 1990;Furman, Porter and Stern, 2002). Secondly, technology-gap models highlight the important role played by countries" absorptive capacity for imitation-based catching up, and show the large set of factors that contribute to define a country"s absorptive capacity (Abramovitz, 1986;Verspagen, 1991;Godinho et al., 2006;Fagerberg and Srholec, 2008).Most of the empirical literature on innovation and growth, though, has so far neglected the study of two important issues. The first is that, while a substantial amount of research has been devoted to the analysis of the impacts of innovation on economic growth, the investigation of the determinants and drivers of national innovative activities, has so far received only limited attention...