Phenological response to climate change in China: a meta‐analysis

Abstract

The change in the phenology of plants or animals reflects the response of living systems to climate change. Numerous studies have reported a consistent earlier spring phenophases in many parts of middle and high latitudes reflecting increasing temperatures with the exception of China. A systematic analysis of Chinese phenological response could complement the assessment of climate change impact for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Here, we analyze 1263 phenological time series (1960-2011, with 20+ years data) of 112 species extracted from 48 studies across 145 sites in China. Taxonomic groups include trees, shrubs, herbs, birds, amphibians and insects. Results demonstrate that 90.8% of the spring/summer phenophases time series show earlier trends and 69.0% of the autumn phenophases records show later trends. For spring/summer phenophases, the mean advance across all the taxonomic groups was 2.75 days decade(-1) ranging between 2.11 and 6.11 days decade(-1) for insects and amphibians, respectively. Herbs and amphibians show significantly stronger advancement than trees, shrubs and insect. The response of phenophases of different taxonomic groups in autumn is more complex: trees, shrubs, herbs and insects show a delay between 1.93 and 4.84 days decade(-1), while other groups reveal an advancement ranging from 1.10 to 2.11 days decade(-1) . For woody plants (including trees and shrubs), the stronger shifts toward earlier spring/summer were detected from the data series starting from more recent decades (1980s-2000s). The geographic factors (latitude, longitude and altitude) could only explain 9% and 3% of the overall variance in spring/summer and autumn phenological trends, respectively. The rate of change in spring/summer phenophase of woody plants (1960s-2000s) generally matches measured local warming across 49 sites in China (R=-0.33, P<0.05).

Geographical pattern in first bloom variability and its relation to temperature sensitivity in the USA and China

“…Therefore, at high latitude, the contribution of stronger warming to advancing trend in spring phenophases can be partly or totally offset by the weaker temperature sensitivity there. This explains why the latitude is not an important predictor of the strength of phenological trends, as suggested by previous studies (Ge et al 2014a;Matsumoto 2010;Parmesan 2007).…”

“…For example, spring/summer phases of plants advanced by 2.5 days/decade from 1971 to 2000 in Europe (Menzel et al 2006). Similarly, in China, obvious advancing trend of 2.75 days/decade f or spring/summer phenophases over the past 50 years was found (Ge et al 2014a). Spring phenology in the continental United States (except the southeastern part) became 4-8 days earlier after 1984 compared to proceeding decades (Schwartz et al 2013a).…”

Spatiotemporal Variability in Start and End of Growing Season in China Related to Climate Variability

“…For example, Cong et al [18] found that the vegetation green-up onset date advanced at the rate ranging from 0.4 to 1.9 days per decade (depending on the methods used) over temperate China in the period 1982-2010. In a recent meta-analysis of trends among Chinese plant phenophases, the spring phenophases of woody and herbaceous plants also advanced over the past several decades [3], suggesting that the variability of plant phenophases as seen from the ground is in accordance with the spatially integrated date of SOS observed from space.…”

“…Among various types of phenotypic plasticity (e.g., morphological, physiological, behavioral, phenological), phenology is particularly sensitive to small variations in environmental factors [2]. Recent meta-analyses showed that most time series of spring phenophases (e.g., flowering and leaf unfolding time of plants) arrived earlier in response to climate warming over the past several decades, and the magnitude of these advances are comparable across continents [3][4][5]. Regarding phenophases of plant senescence, the overall trend is towards later phenophases mainly due to the remarkable autumn warming, but the trends were less apparent and exhibited distinct regional difference [6].…”

Determining the Start of the Growing Season from MODIS Data in the Indian Monsoon Region: Identifying Available Data in the Rainy Season and Modeling the Varied Vegetation Growth Trajectories

“…Vegetation phenology indicates the response and adaptation of terrestrial ecosystems to climatic and environmental changes [1,2], and is critical for understanding the effects of these changes on the carbon cycle [3], water cycle [4] and energy exchange [5] of terrestrial ecosystems. In the Indian monsoon region, the growth of vegetation is mainly controlled by precipitation [6,7], which has experienced significant changes in intensity and frequency over the past half-century [8][9][10]; these changes will certainly cause shifts in vegetation phenology, such as a significant advance in the start of growing season (SOS) in northern parts (e.g., Punjab, Haryana) of India [11].…”