Phenological responses of 215 moth species to interannual climate variation in the Pacific Northwest from 1895 through 2013

Abstract

Climate change has caused shifts in the phenology and distributions of many species but comparing responses across species is challenged by inconsistencies in the methodology and taxonomic and temporal scope of individual studies. Natural history collections offer a rich source of data for examining phenological shifts for a large number of species. We paired specimen records from Pacific Northwest insect collections to climate data to analyze the responses of 215 moth species to interannual climate variation over a period of 119 years (1895–2013) during which average annual temperatures have increased in the region. We quantified the effects of late winter/early spring temperatures, averaged annually across the region, on dates of occurrence of adults, taking into account the effects of elevation, latitude, and longitude. We assessed whether species-specific phenological responses varied with adult flight season and larval diet breadth. Collection dates were significantly earlier in warmer years for 36.3% of moth species, and later for 3.7%. Species exhibited an average phenological advance of 1.9 days/°C, but species-specific shifts ranged from an advance of 10.3 days/°C to a delay of 10.6 days/°C. More spring-flying species shifted their phenology than summer- or fall-flying species. These responses did not vary among groups defined by larval diet breadth. The highly variable phenological responses to climate change in Pacific Northwest moths agree with other studies on Lepidoptera and suggest that it will remain difficult to accurately forecast which species and ecological interactions are most likely to be affected by climate change. Our results also underscore the value of natural history collections as windows into long-term ecological trends.

Phenological responses to climate change based on a hundred years of herbarium collections of tropical Melastomataceae

“…This was the first study based exclusively on biological and geographic data publicly available on the RVH for phenological purposes, reinforcing the utility of these rich Brazilian database as a substitute when field observations are inexistent. Natural history collections have been proved to be suitable for phenological research in animals [ 64 ] and plants [ 21 ]. However, though easily available, dealing with large data from collections is not an easy task.…”

Insect Hybridization and Climate Change

“…For species to persist in the face of climate change, populations must synchronize their phenology with the environmental conditions and with other interacting populations (Senner et al, 2017). Insects are responding to climate change by altering the seasonal timing of adult emergence (Diamond et al, 2011;Maurer et al, 2018). For example, over the past 50 years, Rocky Mountain grasshoppers at high elevation have delayed development, while low elevation populations have advanced development (Buckley et al, 2015).…”

“…Collections provide a record of the recent past (Holmes et al, 2016), and can be a baseline for tracking insect's changing phenologies and geographic locations. Natural history collections have been successfully used to pinpoint the past timing of adult emergence (Nufio et al, 2010;Maurer et al, 2018), and to track changes in species ranges (Ryan et al, 2018). Collections and survey data (see citizen science data below) are limited to telling us that an event happened, but not the exact timing of the event in most cases.…”

Monitoring of adult emergence in the pine processionary moth between 1970 and 1984 in Mont Ventoux, France

“…Widely-distributed species encounter different ecological pressures throughout their range and their phenology can be locally tuned by adaptation to optimise resource use and climatic conditions faced by each life stage ( Abarca and Lill 2019 ). In the recent years, climate change has strongly affected the phenology of many organisms, but the direction and strength of these responses proved to vary among species ( Maurer et al 2018 ). To analyse how species react to temperature changes, it is necessary to rely on time series that allow us to finely explore the relationship between yearly variations and the timing of major life cycle steps.…”