Phenology of British butterflies and climate change

Abstract

Summary Data from a national butterfly monitoring scheme were analysed to test for relationships between temperature and three phenological measures, duration of flight period and timing of both first and peak appearance. First appearances of most British butterflies has advanced in the last two decades and is strongly related to earlier peak appearance and, for multibrooded species, longer flight period. Mean dates of first and peak appearance are examined in relation to Manley's central England temperatures, using regression techniques. We predict that, in the absence of confounding factors, such as interactions with other organisms and land‐use change, climate warming of the order of 1 °C could advance first and peak appearance of most butterflies by 2–10 days.

Temporal variations in English populations of a forest insect pest, the green spruce aphid (Elatobium abietinum), associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and global warming

“…There are also associations with the over-wintering stage such that species of butterfly that hibernate as adults show much less association with the NAO index than species that over-winter as larvae, this is probably because adult butterflies have completed their feeding before the onset of NAO controlled autumn and winter weather, whereas larvae will feed on warm winter days (Westgarth- Phenology is of particular current interest with biological events reportedly happening earlier in the spring, and also later in the autumn as a response to global warming. For example Roy and Sparks (2000) suggest that climate warming of 1 °C could advance butterfly appearance by 2-10 days.…”

Parnassius apollo nevadensis: identification of recent population structure and source–sink dynamics

“…Butterflies are known for being very sensitive to changes in their environment, and their populations have already been shown to be vulnerable to climatic change (Parmesan et al 1999;Roy and Sparks 2000;Wilson et al 2005;Wilson et al 2007;Forister et al 2010;Wilson and Maclean 2011;Radchuk et al 2013;Descombes et al 2015;Oliver et al 2015). The effect of climate change seems to be even stronger in montane taxa, which could face extreme increases in temperature (NoguŽs-Bravo et al 2007;Wilson et al 2007).…”

Accounting for habitat when considering climate: has the niche of the Adonis blue butterfly changed in the UK?

“…The number of host plants found in tall turf will have been reduced, which in turn reduces the opportunities available for females to oviposit in longer turf. P. bellargus may also have responded to climate change in other ways that would benefit its populations, such as earlier emergence and longer flight periods (Altermatt 2010;Roy and Sparks 2000). Our results also show that the influence of shelter category on oviposition was less than that of turf height, especially in 2009, and for Ballard Down in 2009 it was not a significant predictor of egg presence.…”

“…During recent decades in West Europe, two factors have influenced the ambient temperature of the received microclimates for many grassland species whose larval stages live at or near the soil surface. Firstly, climate warming has elevated spring-autumn air temperatures (Roy and Sparks 2000;Trenberth et al 2007). …”

“…Global warming is an equally well-documented driver of change in insects, affecting phenology, voltinism, niche breadth, population stability and density, and geographic ranges (Altermatt 2010;Davies et al 2006;Hill et al 2002;Oliver et al 2012;Parmesan 2006;Parmesan et al 1999;Roy et al 2001;Roy and Sparks 2000;Thomas et al 2001).…”