Phenology of Tempranillo and Cabernet-Sauvignon varieties cultivated in the Ribera del Duero DO: observed variability and predictions under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Aim: This research examined relationships between grapevine phenology and climate in the Ribera del Duero DO (Spain). The observed varieties included Tempranillo, the main variety planted in the region, and Cabernet-Sauvignon.Methods and Results: Phenological events for stages C (budbreak), I (bloom), M (véraison) and N (maturity) were analyzed for 2004-2015. Dormant period chilling and late winter heating requirements to initiate growth were evaluated and accumulated temperature (growing degree days-GDD) prior to each phenological event and in between events were examined for the role they play in influencing growth timing. The results were then used to examine future phenological changes due to climate change using eight models integrated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios – RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 – for 2030, 2050, and 2070. Accumulated temperatures after March 20th become important for initiating phenology and are strongly correlated to all growth events. The influence of water availability between budbreak and bloom and between bloom and véraison on phenological timing was also confirmed.Conclusions: The projections showed that for the RCP4.5 emission scenario, budbreak is predicted earlier by approximately 2 days for 2030, 3 days for 2050 and 5 days for 2070, while bloom is predicted to be 3 to 8 days earlier and véraison 6 to 19 days earlier for the same time periods. For the RCP8.5 emission scenario, budbreak is modeled to take place about 3 days, 5 days and 9 days earlier, respectively for 2030, 2050 and 2070. Bloom is predicted to occur about 5, 10 and 16 days earlier; véraison is predicted earlier by 10 days for 2030, 19 days for 2050, and 28 days for 2070. Maturity and the timing of harvest could be up to 23 days earlier under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and up to 35 days earlier under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Compared to Cabernet-Sauvignon, Tempranillo exhibited greater phenological sensitivity to temperature changes in the observed time period that is likely to continue into the future with greater changes to earlier growth events projected. This sensitivity could be problematic for the region due to the variety’s historic importance and points to the need to examine adaptive measures that can help growers to respond to projected changes in climate.Significance and impact of the study: The projected climate changes in the future indicate the potential for significant changes in the phenology of Tempranillo in the Ribera del Duero DO, Spain. Given that this variety has the largest contribution and importance in this region, these changes could have impacts on wine quality, indicating the need of establishing strategies to reduce or mitigate the impact from future changes in climate.

Grapevine Phenology of cv. Touriga Franca and Touriga Nacional in the Douro Wine Region: Modelling and Climate Change Projections

“…Hence, the GDD linear model is not always the best approach to model and simulate grapevine phenology, as the phenology-temperature relationship may be of non-linear nature. The present study results are comparable, in terms of model performance, to other studies in other winemaking regions worldwide [19,26,27,43,[62][63][64][65]. Although the aforementioned models provide the best approaches, it is important to bear in mind that they are bound to this particular phenology dataset.…”

Effects of Three Irrigation Strategies on Gas Exchange Relationships, Plant Water Status, Yield Components and Water Productivity on Grafted Carménère Grapevines

“…For this period, the values of GDD ranged between 1,473 and 1,547°C which were similar to those reported for other red cultivars. In this regard, Verdugo-Vásquez et al (2016) reported a range between 1,455 and 1,640°C for Cabernet Sauvignon while Ramos et al (2018) indicated 1,358 and 1,483°C for cvs. Cabernet Sauvignon and Tempranillo, respectively.…”

Relationships between Cabernet Sauvignon phenology and climate in two Spanish viticultural regions: observations and predicted future changes

“…The period between BB and BL may be shortened by up to 4.8 and 7.5 days by 2070, the period from BL to V could be shortened by up to 7.5 and 8.5 days, while the period from V to M might be shortened by 5.4 and 8.1 days under the two emission trajectories (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), respectively. These changes are similar to those projected for other red varieties cultivated in the same area, such as Tempranillo (Ramos et al ., 2018).…”