Increased "loop gain" of the ventilatory control system promotes obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) in some patients and offers an avenue for more personalized treatment, yet diagnostic tools for directly measuring loop gain in the clinical setting are lacking. Here we test the hypothesis that elevated loop gain during sleep can be recognized using voluntary breath-hold manoeuvres during wakefulness. Twenty individuals (10 OSA, 10 controls) participated in a single overnight study with voluntary breath-holding manoeuvres performed during wakefulness. We assessed (1) maximal breath-hold duration, and (2) the ventilatory response to 20 s breath-holds. For comparison, gold standard loop gain values were obtained during non-rapid eye movement (non-REM) sleep using the ventilatory response to 20 s pulses of hypoxic-hypercapnic gas (6% CO -14% O , mimicking apnoea). Continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was used to maintain airway patency during sleep. Additional measurements included gold standard loop gain measurement during wakefulness and steady-state loop gain measurement during sleep using CPAP dial-ups. Higher loop gain during sleep was associated with (1) a shorter maximal breath-hold duration (r = 0.49, P < 0.001), and (2) a larger ventilatory response to 20 s breath-holds during wakefulness (second breath; r = 0.50, P < 0.001); together these factors combine to predict high loop gain (receiver operating characteristic area-under-curve: 92%). Gold standard loop gain values were remarkably similar during wake and non-REM sleep. The results show that elevated loop gain during sleep can be identified using simple breath-holding manoeuvres performed during wakefulness. This may have implications for personalizing OSA treatment.