Food security for all is a global political goal and an outstanding moral concern. The common response to this concern is agricultural intensification, which includes among other things increasing inputs of fertilisers. The paper addresses the fact that phosphorus (P) is essential for agricultural production but large and increasing amounts of P fertilisers stem from depletable mines. This raises sustainability concerns and the possibility of long-term food insecurity. The paper analyses three scenarios for global phosphorus extraction and recycling under discounted utilitarianism. First, for a benchmark scenario without recycling, food security will inevitably be violated in the long run. Second, if we introduce P recycling, food security can be maintained but food production falls over time and approaches a minimum level just sufficient to feed the global population. Third, a sustainable (i.e. non-declining) path of food production is feasible. Compared to just maintaining a minimum level of food production the sustainable path requires greater recycling efforts. Recycling efforts are increasing over time but the total discounted costs are finite and, hence, sustainable food production seems feasible even if it depends on depletable phosphate mines.Keywords Phosphorus depletion . Food security . Phosphorus recycling . Sustainable food production Depletable phosphate mines: impacts for long-run food securityThe well-being of about one billion people is threatened by hunger and food insecurity (FAO 2009). This is arguably a moral disaster and a poor performance of our social and economic systems on the local and the global scale. But even worse, the efforts towards food security are thwarted by population growth and increasing scarcity of agricultural inputs. Notwithstanding efforts to improve food security governance (Pereira and Ruysenaar 2012) a common strategy towards global food security is agricultural intensification with increasing inputs of fertilisers, mainly nitrogen (N), potassium (K) and phosphorus (P) to increase yields (Pinstrup-Andersen and Pandya-Lorch 1998;Baldos and Hertel 2014; PinstrupAndersen 2014). While N fertilisers can be produced from atmospheric nitrogen (using energy), K and P fertilisers are extracted from depletable mines. While K is relatively abundant, P is more limited (Scholz and Wellmer 2013). Although the stocks of rock phosphate, the main source of mineral P fertilizers, are difficult to assess, there is a growing concern that mines might be depleted within a century (Steen 1998;Cordell et al. 2009;Smit et al. 2009;Keyzer 2010;Cordell and White 2015). Although other studies expect sufficient availability beyond the 21st century (van Vuuren et al. 2010;Koppelaar and Weikard 2013), the fact remains that rock phosphate is a depletable resource.1 This underlines the need to develop effective and low cost recycling options beyond the application of animal manure and composted organic wastes, the cheap options that are widely applied. Cordell et al. (2011) provide an over...