The authors developed a comprehensive model of colon cancer incidence that allows for nonproportional hazards and accounts for the temporal nature of risk factors. They estimated relative risk based on cumulative incidence of colon cancer by age 70 years. Using multivariate, nonlinear Poisson regression, they determined colon cancer risk among 83,767 participants in the Nurses' Health Study. The authors observed 701 cases of colon cancer between 1980 and June 1, 2004. There was increased risk for a positive family history of colon or rectal cancer (55%), 10 or more pack-years of cigarette smoking before age 30 years (16%), and tallness (67 inches (170 cm) vs. 61 inches (155 cm): 19%). Reduced risk was observed for current postmenopausal hormone use (À23%), being physically active (21 metabolic equivalent (MET)-hours/week vs. 2 MET-hours/week: À49%), taking aspirin (7 tablets/week vs. none: À29%), and being screened (À24%). Women who smoked, had a consistently high relative weight, had a low physical activity level, consumed red or processed meat daily, were never screened, and consumed low daily amounts of folate had almost a 4-fold higher cumulative risk of colon cancer by age 70 years. For women with a high risk factor profile, adopting a healthier lifestyle could dramatically reduce colon cancer risk. colonic neoplasms; incidence; risk; risk factors; women Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; MET, metabolic equivalent; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; RR, relative risk; SEER, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results.The influence of many risk factors for colon cancer often varies depending on when they occur, both in relation to age and in relation to other exposures. The dependence of the effects of risk factors on age or on other exposures implies a violation of the standard Cox proportional hazards model and requires a different modeling approach in order to incorporate all risk factors in a single model. The use of biomathematical models, of which the logincidence model is an example, to describe human cancer incidence evolved from hypotheses regarding the transformation of cells from normal cells to malignant cells and are particularly suited to the adenoma-carcinoma model of colon cancer (1, 2).Factors that have been shown to increase risk of colon cancer include disturbances in energy balance (e.g., physical inactivity and/or obesity) (3-5), high intake of red or processed meat (6), low folate intake, high alcohol intake, and cigarette smoking (7). In addition, aspirin use (8-10) and postmenopausal hormone use (11) have also been shown to reduce a woman's risk of colon cancer. However, most previous studies evaluating the role of these risk factors have focused on them individually. Our aim was the development of a comprehensive model that combines known risk factors for colon cancer and allows modeling of different risk factor profiles. The nonlinear model we developed allows for relative risk estimates based