Pick Your Poison: The Attribution Paradox in Cyberwar

Abstract

Certainty matters in cyberspace. The so-called attribution problem can impede deterrence, making cyberattacks more likely. But attribution problems can also limit conflict escalation, keeping nations safer. Using a discrete choice experimental design, this article quantifies the scope of the attribution problem for both deterrence and escalation. The results suggest that the attribution problem is really only a problem for deterrence and actually helps limit conflict escalation by reducing support for more severe retaliatory options.