Plague and Climate: Scales Matter

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Neerinckx, Simon; Gage, Kenneth L.; Kreppel, Katharina; Laudisoit, Anne; Leirs, Herwig; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1002160

Cited by 142 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…In a previous study in the area, Makundi et al (2005) recommended an approach for plague control which is to intensify the control of fleas with insecticides outdoors during peak plague outbreak season. Another reason for the negative influence of miraba and maize may be due to weather and microclimate change because temperature and relative humidity impact flea survival (Gage et al, 2008;Ben Ari et al, 2011;Eisen et al, 2012). High rainfall may also cause flooding of burrows located in maize fields and hence resulting in death of fleas.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of land use to rodent flea load distribution in the plague endemic area of Lushoto District, Tanzania

Hieronimo

Kihupi

Kimaro

et al. 2014

Tanzania J Hlth Res

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Fleas associated with different rodent species are considered as the major vectors of bubonic plague, which is still rampant in different parts of the world. The objective of this study was to investigate the contribution of land use to rodent flea load distribution at fine scale in the plague endemic area of north-eastern Tanzania. Data was collected in three case areas namely, Shume, Lukozi and Mwangoi, differing in plague incidence levels. Data collection was carried out during both wet and dry seasons of 2012. Analysis of Variance and Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) statistical methods were used to clarify the relationships between fleas and specific land use characteristics. There was a significant variation (P ≤ 0.05) of flea indices in different land use types. Fallow and natural forest had higher flea indices whereas plantation forest mono-crop and mixed annual crops had the lowest flea indices among the aggregated land use types. The influence of individual land use types on flea indices was variable with fallow having a positive effect and land tillage showing a negative effect. The results also demonstrated a seasonal effect, part of which can be attributed to different land use practices such as application of pesticides, or the presence of grass strips around fields. These findings suggest that land use factors have a major influence on rodent flea abundance which can be taken as a proxy for plague infection risk. The results further point to the need for a comprehensive package that includes land tillage and crop type considerations on one hand and the associated human activities on the other, in planning and implementation of plague control interventions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contribution of land use to rodent flea load distribution in the plague endemic area of Lushoto District, Tanzania

Hieronimo

Kihupi

Kimaro

et al. 2014

Tanzania J Hlth Res

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“…For example, investigations of the effect of environmental factors on plague activity may involve models that include flea activity, host specificity of fleas, susceptibility of rodent species to the pathogen, survival of rodent species, ability of fleas to support plague bacteria within their bodies, etc. However, such factors further depend on other factors such as temperature and precipitation [77]. Such research requires a systems-based approach that not only integrates information from several fields of research in order to address the population context in which infectious disease occurs, but also considers the interactions and feedback loops between components of the system [3,78].…”

Section: Effect Of Seasonality and Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Deepening the Conception of Functional Information in the Description of Zoonotic Infectious Diseases

Kosoy

2013

Entropy

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Infectious agents, their hosts, and relevant abiotic components are directly involved in the complex dynamic process of maintaining infectious diseases in Nature. The current tendency to focus on host-pathogen interactions at the molecular and organismal levels does not advance our knowledge about infectious diseases, as much as it potentially could, by ignoring the ecological context pivotal for understanding the biology of the diseases. A new model of investigation requires a dynamic shift of perspectives in the "simplicity-complexity" dimension: from virulence factors to multi-sided descriptions of the pathogens; from particular microbes to wide microbial communities; from clinical manifestations to a variety of infectious patterns; from findings of infectious agents to defining a natural focus of the infection as a self-regulated system; from single factors affecting host-parasite relations to the complex ecological context. Various aspects of interactions between hosts, vectors, pathogens, and environmental niches should be integrated at multiple spatiotemporal scales and at different levels of biological organization (molecular, genomic, organismal, population, and ecosystem).

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“…The main host for plague on the island is the black rat, with its fleas acting as the vector. The persistence of plague foci in Madagascar is associated with climatic, environmental and sociological factors (Ben Ari et al, 2011) all of which affect the distribution of flea and rodent populations, and their contact with humans. Among the climatic factors, temperature, rainfall and relative humidity are considered to affect the disease dynamics, mostly through their effects on the survival and reproduction of host and vector (Stenseth et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling of spatio-temporal variation in plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007

Giorgi

Kreppel

Diggle

et al. 2016

Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology

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Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, which, during the fourteenth century, caused the deaths of an estimated 75 to 200 million people in Europe. Plague epidemics still occur in Africa, Asia and South America. Madagascar is today one of the most endemic countries, reporting nearly one third of the human cases worldwide from 2004 to 2009. The persistence of plague in Madagascar is associated with environmental and climatic conditions. In this paper we present a case study of the spatio-temporal analysis of plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007. We study the relationship of plague with temperature and precipitation anomalies, and with elevation. A joint spatio-temporal analysis of the data proves to be computationally intractable. We therefore develop a spatio-temporal log-Gaussian Cox process model, but then carry out marginal temporal and spatial analyses. We also introduce a spatially discrete approximation for Gaussian processes, whose parameters retain a spatially continuous interpretation. We find evidence of a cumulative effect, over time, of temperature anomalies on plague incidence, and of a very high relative risk of plague occurrence for locations above 800 meters in elevation. Our approach provides a useful modelling framework to assess the relationship between exposures and plague risk, irrespective of the spatial resolution at which the latter has been recorded.

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Plague and Climate: Scales Matter

Cited by 142 publications

References 62 publications

Contribution of land use to rodent flea load distribution in the plague endemic area of Lushoto District, Tanzania

Contribution of land use to rodent flea load distribution in the plague endemic area of Lushoto District, Tanzania

Deepening the Conception of Functional Information in the Description of Zoonotic Infectious Diseases

Modeling of spatio-temporal variation in plague incidence in Madagascar from 1980 to 2007

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