Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation

Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Samia, Noelle I.; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Kausrud, Kyrre; Begon, Michael; Davis, Stephen; Leirs, Herwig; Dubyanskiy, V. M.; Esper, Jan; Ageyev, Vladimir S.; Klassovskiy, Nikolay L.; Pole, Sergey B.; Chan, Kalok

doi:10.1073/pnas.0602447103

Cited by 249 publications

(201 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The optimum model for the rodent-flea-plague system is a multivariate nonlinear model, where the nonlinearity feature pertains to the behavior of the infectious-flea force as a threshold model with the rodent density being a dominant season-specific variable defining the threshold (SI Text). This result suggests that the rodent population 1.5-2 y earlier has to be sufficiently high for an outbreak to occur, which is consistent with but more multifaceted than previous findings (6,14,15).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 81%

“…We denote the threshold quantity by R eff , the effective reproduction number of the wildlife system. An expression for R 0 is derived in SI Text, and it was earlier derived from a dynamical transmission model by Keeling and Gilligan (16) and applied to data in the work by Stenseth et al (6). It is given by…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Environmental factors affect the plague system at many levels (1,5,6), several of which are related to the effects of temperature and humidity on the reproduction and survival of hosts and vectors. Above the flea threshold, we find lag-1 spring temperature to be positively related to human plague cases, consistent with earlier findings that this relationship increases plague prevalence in gerbils (6).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamics of the plague–wildlife–human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

Samia

Kausrud

Heesterbeek

et al. 2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis) is a zoonotic reemerging infectious disease with reservoirs in rodent populations worldwide. Using one-half of a century of unique data from Kazakhstan on plague dynamics, including data on the main rodent host reservoir (great gerbil), main vector (flea), human cases, and external (climate) conditions, we analyze the full ecoepidemiological (bubonic) plague system. We show that two epidemiological threshold quantities play key roles: one threshold relating to the dynamics in the host reservoir, and the second threshold relating to the spillover of the plague bacteria into the human population.climate forcing | generalized threshold model | wildlife reservoir of Yersinia pestis | spillover to the human population

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamics of the plague–wildlife–human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

Samia

Kausrud

Heesterbeek

et al. 2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…In turn, historical records of human infections can only reflect those occasions when Y. pestis spread from its sylvatic environment, and accidentally caused epidemic disease in humans. The dynamics of such occasions is unknown although attempts have been made to associate them with climactic changes [72].…”

Section: Phylogeographic Patterns and Historical Reconstructions Of Pmentioning

confidence: 99%

Insights from genomic comparisons of genetically monomorphic bacterial pathogens

Achtman

2012

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

116

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Some of the most deadly bacterial diseases, including leprosy, anthrax and plague, are caused by bacterial lineages with extremely low levels of genetic diversity, the so-called 'genetically monomorphic bacteria'. It has only become possible to analyse the population genetics of such bacteria since the recent advent of high-throughput comparative genomics. The genomes of genetically monomorphic lineages contain very few polymorphic sites, which often reflect unambiguous clonal genealogies. Some genetically monomorphic lineages have evolved in the last decades, e.g. antibiotic-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, whereas others have evolved over several millennia, e.g. the cause of plague, Yersinia pestis. Based on recent results, it is now possible to reconstruct the sources and the history of pandemic waves of plague by a combined analysis of phylogeographic signals in Y. pestis plus polymorphisms found in ancient DNA. Different from historical accounts based exclusively on human disease, Y. pestis evolved in China, or the vicinity, and has spread globally on multiple occasions. These routes of transmission can be reconstructed from the genealogy, most precisely for the most recent pandemic that was spread from Hong Kong in multiple independent waves in 1894.

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“…2, 3). Most other studies have reported spring surges in flea populations prior to outbreaks, which corresponds more with the typical annual patterns in flea abundance seen in this study and elsewhere (Anderson and Williams, 1997;Cully et al, 1997;Stenseth et al, 2006). Whatever the cause, it seems likely that the increase in prevalence and abundance of fleas in summer 2004 was a key precursor to plague outbreak in this colony.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 56%

Flea Abundance, Diversity, and Plague in Gunnison's Prairie Dogs (Cynomys Gunnisoni) and Their Burrows in Montane Grasslands in Northern New Mexico

Friggens

Parmenter

Boyden

et al. 2010

Journal of Wildlife Diseases

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ABSTRACT:Plague, a flea-transmitted infectious disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a primary threat to the persistence of prairie dog populations (Cynomys spp.). We conducted a 3-yr survey (2004)(2005)(2006) of fleas from Gunnison's prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni) and their burrows in montane grasslands in Valles Caldera National Preserve in New Mexico. Our objectives were to describe flea communities and identify flea and rodent species important to the maintenance of plague. We live-trapped prairie dogs and conducted burrow sweeps at three colonies in spring and summer of each year. One hundred thirty prairie dogs and 51 goldenmantled ground squirrels (Spermophilus lateralis) were captured over 3,640 trap nights and 320 burrows were swabbed for fleas. Five flea species were identified from prairie dogs and ground squirrels and four were identified from burrow samples. Oropsylla hirsuta was the most abundant species found on prairie dogs and in burrows. We found a significant surge in flea abundance and prevalence, particularly within burrows, following plague exposure. We noted an increased tendency for flea exchange opportunities in the spring before O. hirsuta reached its peak population. We hypothesize that the role of burrows as a site of flea exchange, particularly between prairie dogs and ground squirrels, may be as important as summer conditions that lead to buildup in O. hirsuta populations for determining plague outbreaks.

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Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation

Cited by 249 publications

References 22 publications

Dynamics of the plague–wildlife–human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

Dynamics of the plague–wildlife–human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

Insights from genomic comparisons of genetically monomorphic bacterial pathogens

Flea Abundance, Diversity, and Plague in Gunnison's Prairie Dogs (Cynomys Gunnisoni) and Their Burrows in Montane Grasslands in Northern New Mexico

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