Plague Persistence in Western Europe: A Hypothesis

Carmichael, Ann G.

doi:10.17302/tmg.1-1.7

Cited by 26 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…[66,67]). The establishment of a persistent reservoir in the Alpine region of Western Europe has been proposed [68]. However, recent studies of ancient DNA suggest that the genetic diversity of Y. pestis in Europe may be the result of multiple introductions [15] possibly from multiple reservoirs located in western Eurasia [69].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of temperature on the seasonality of historical plague outbreaks

2021

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Modern plague outbreaks exhibit a distinct seasonal pattern. By contrast, the seasonality of historical outbreaks and its drivers has not been studied systematically. Here, we investigate the seasonal pattern, the epidemic peak timing and growth rates, and the association with latitude, temperature, and precipitation using a large, novel dataset of plague- and all-cause mortality during the Second Pandemic in Europe and the Mediterranean. We show that epidemic peak timing followed a latitudinal gradient, with mean annual temperature negatively associated with peak timing. Based on modern temperature data, the predicted epidemic growth of all outbreaks was positive between 11.7°C and 21.5°C with a maximum around 17.3°C. Hence, our study provides evidence that the growth of plague epidemics across the whole study region depended on similar absolute temperature thresholds. Here, we present a systematic analysis of the seasonality of historical plague in the Northern Hemisphere, and we show consistent evidence for a temperature-related process influencing the epidemic peak timing and growth rates of plague epidemics.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of temperature on the seasonality of historical plague outbreaks

2021

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“…A new strain was introduced from Asia in the mid 14 th century to cause the Black Death, and repeat outbreaks recurred until the 17 th century (Benedictow, 2021). It has been argued that these episodic epidemics in humans were only possible due to the infection of European wild rodent populations, which acted as reservoirs until the environmental conditions facilitated its spread back to humans by flea bites once again (Carmichael, 2015). It remains unclear why plague died out in humans in Europe in the 17 th century, but persists to this day in many tropical regions such as Madagascar.…”

Section: Paleopathology and Zoonotic Infectious Diseasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using paleopathology to provide a deep-time perspective that improves our understanding of one health challenges: Exploring urbanization

Mitchell

2024

Res. dir. One health

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The question posed is how deep time perspectives contribute to tackling contemporary One Health challenges, improving understanding and disease mitigation. Using evidence from the field of paleopathology, it is possible to explore this question and highlight key learning points from the past to focus the minds of those making healthcare policy decisions today. In previous centuries urbanisation led to poorer health for a wide range of indicators, including life expectancy, sanitation and intestinal parasites, airway disorders such as maxillary sinusitis, metabolic diseases such as rickets, and even conditions resulting from clothing fashions such as bunions. Modern concerns regarding the quality of urban air and rivers shows we have still to incorporate these lessons. When we consider major infectious diseases affecting past societies such as bubonic plague, tuberculosis and leprosy, interaction between humans and wild mammal reservoirs was key. Wild red squirrels in Britain today remain infected by the medieval strain of leprosy that affected people 1,500 years ago. It is clear that the One Health focus on the interaction between humans, animals and their environment is important. Eradicating zoonotic infectious diseases from humans but not these reservoirs leaves the door open to their spread back to people in the future.

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“…For example, the map shown in Fig. 2 exposes a high concentration of potential reservoirs in Europe where no known plague foci currently exist, although it is thought that they were once present in the past, based on historical and phylogenetic analyses (Carmichael 2016;Bos et al 2016). Other conditions are also needed for the pathogen to effectively circulate in the ecosystem, such as its ability to survive in rodent burrows (Karimova & Neronov 2007;Malek et al 2017;Spyrou et al 2019;Barbieri et al 2020) following the death of infected hosts (Baltazard et al 1960;Eisen et al 2008).…”

Section: Iranmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plague reservoir species throughout the world

et al. 2020

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Plague has been known since ancient times as a re-emerging infectious disease, causing considerable socioeconomic burden in regional hotspots. To better understand the epidemiological cycle of the causative agent of the plague, its potential occurrence, and possible future dispersion, one must carefully consider the taxonomy, distribution, and ecological requirements of reservoir-species in relation either to natural or human-driven changes (e.g. climate change or urbanization). In recent years, the depth of knowledge on species taxonomy and species composition in different landscapes has undergone a dramatic expansion, driven by modern taxonomic methods such as synthetic surveys that take into consideration morphology, genetics, and the ecological setting of captured animals to establish their species identities. Here, we consider the recent taxonomic changes of the rodent species in known plague reservoirs and detail their distribution across the world, with a particular focus on those rodents considered to be keystone host species. A complete checklist of all known plague-infectable vertebrates living in plague foci is provided as a Supporting Information table.

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Plague Persistence in Western Europe: A Hypothesis

Cited by 26 publications

References 45 publications

The influence of temperature on the seasonality of historical plague outbreaks

The influence of temperature on the seasonality of historical plague outbreaks

Using paleopathology to provide a deep-time perspective that improves our understanding of one health challenges: Exploring urbanization

Plague reservoir species throughout the world

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