Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change

Carlson, Colin J.; Bevins, Sarah N.; Schmid, Boris V.

doi:10.1111/gcb.15966

Cited by 26 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 124 publications

(200 reference statements)

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“…Under climate scenarios from the IPCC, the climatic suitability of chikungunya transmission will increase in western and central parts of Europe, but will not generally be suitable in Southern Europe [ 48 ]. Due to climate change, the suitability of rodents in certain high-altitude areas has increased by 40% [ 49 ]. For mosquitoes and ticks, warming climate generally increases the risk of associated disease transmission at high-latitude and -altitude areas, while the risk of transmission may generally decrease in tropical regions.…”

Section: Non-linear Effects Of Local Climate On Vbd Transmissionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Drives the Transmission and Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: An Ecological Perspective

Guo

Gao

et al. 2022

Biology

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Climate change affects ecosystems and human health in multiple dimensions. With the acceleration of climate change, climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases (VBDs) pose an increasing threat to public health. This paper summaries 10 publications on the impacts of climate change on ecosystems and human health; then it synthesizes the other existing literature to more broadly explain how climate change drives the transmission and spread of VBDs through an ecological perspective. We highlight the multi-dimensional nature of climate change, its interaction with other factors, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on transmission and spread of VBDs, specifically including: (1) the generally nonlinear relationship of local climate (temperature, precipitation and wind) and VBD transmission, with temperature especially exhibiting an n-shape relation; (2) the time-lagged effect of regional climate phenomena (the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation) on VBD transmission; (3) the u-shaped effect of extreme climate (heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts) on VBD spread; (4) how interactions between non-climatic (land use and human mobility) and climatic factors increase VBD transmission and spread; and (5) that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on climate change is debatable, and its impact on VBDs remains uncertain. By exploring the influence of climate change and non-climatic factors on VBD transmission and spread, this paper provides scientific understanding and guidance for their effective prevention and control.

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Section: Non-linear Effects Of Local Climate On Vbd Transmissionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Drives the Transmission and Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: An Ecological Perspective

Guo

Gao

et al. 2022

Biology

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“…The importance of calcium could be associated with its role in the formation of the cuticle of insects, including fleas. Another study in the Western United States ( 24 ), based on an ecological niche model, also supports the thesis that long-term persistence of plague reservoirs depends on soil conditions, such as lower soil concentrations of Fe and Na. Moreover, a field survey in Algeria ( 25 ) and a modeling study linking plague cases and outbreaks to specific soil characteristics in the United States demonstrated that Y. pestis could survive outside its host in saline soil ( 26 ) (e.g., with concentrations of NaCl higher than 40 g/L), implying that the salt tolerance of Y. pestis might play a role in maintaining plague reservoirs, possibly by rendering the bacterium into an L form.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…In addition to metal elements in soil, several previous studies suggested that soil pH supports the development of a plague reservoir, as it can impact Y. pestis and possibly flea larvae development ( 23 , 24 , 31 ). These results are consistent with the fact that soil pH greatly affects the availability and mobility of various metals in soil, including several key elements associated with plague, such as Ca and Fe.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

No evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical and modern Europe

Stenseth

Tao

Zhang

et al. 2022

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Caused by Yersinia pestis , plague ravaged the world through three known pandemics: the First or the Justinianic (6th–8th century); the Second (beginning with the Black Death during c.1338–1353 and lasting until the 19th century); and the Third (which became global in 1894). It is debatable whether Y. pestis persisted in European wildlife reservoirs or was repeatedly introduced from outside Europe (as covered by European Union and the British Isles). Here, we analyze environmental data (soil characteristics and climate) from active Chinese plague reservoirs to assess whether such environmental conditions in Europe had ever supported “natural plague reservoirs”. We have used new statistical methods which are validated through predicting the presence of modern plague reservoirs in the western United States. We find no support for persistent natural plague reservoirs in either historical or modern Europe. Two factors make Europe unfavorable for long-term plague reservoirs: 1) Soil texture and biochemistry and 2) low rodent diversity. By comparing rodent communities in Europe with those in China and the United States, we conclude that a lack of suitable host species might be the main reason for the absence of plague reservoirs in Europe today. These findings support the hypothesis that long-term plague reservoirs did not exist in Europe and therefore question the importance of wildlife rodent species as the primary plague hosts in Europe.

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“…Challenges to such predictions in part reflect that climate change interacts with land-use change, other human-caused and natural environmental changes, and interactions among species (Biel and Hacker 2021, Carlson et al 2021, Cinoglu et al 2021, Reed et al 2021. In both aquatic and terrestrial systems, the duration of a climate anomaly, such as a heat wave, also may affect stress, mortality, and population persistence (Bradford et al 2022).…”

Section: Natural Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sixth Oregon climate assessment

Fleishman¹

2023

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Consistent with its charge under Oregon House Bill 3543, the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI) conducts a biennial assessment of the state of climate change science, including biological, physical, and social science, as it relates to Oregon and the likely effects of climate change on Oregon. This sixth Oregon Climate Assessment builds on the previous assessments by continuing to evaluate past and projected future changes in Oregon’s climate and water supply. Like the fifth assessment, it is structured with the goal of supporting the state’s mitigation planning for natural hazards and implementation of the 2021 Oregon Climate Change Adaptation Framework.

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Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change

Cited by 26 publications

References 124 publications

Climate Change Drives the Transmission and Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: An Ecological Perspective

Climate Change Drives the Transmission and Spread of Vector-Borne Diseases: An Ecological Perspective

No evidence for persistent natural plague reservoirs in historical and modern Europe

Sixth Oregon climate assessment

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