Planning a Complex Mine Construction Project under Price Cyclicality

Renaud, Matt; Kumral, Mustafa

doi:10.1080/10429247.2020.1718461

Cited by 6 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…If this range does not coincide with the risk perception of the management, a risk mitigation strategy can be implemented. This paper is an extension of our previous work (Renaud & Kumral, 2020) and takes a further step that incorporates uncertainties into the project planning procedure.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Causes and effects of these biases will be described in the Limitations section of this paper. A more in-depth description of the cost estimation process can be found in the previous study (Renaud & Kumral, 2020).…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This study can be considered as a continuation and/or an improvement to the previous study to expand the capabilities of the model and address issues that are more pertinent to the construction industry as a whole. Please refer to the previous study for further details and intricacies of the linear programming formulation (Renaud & Kumral, 2020).…”

Section: Monte Carlo Sampling-based Linear Programming Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Note that any project parameters included in this analysis do not represent any particular mine currently or previously in existence. A more in-depth description of the project and its assumptions can be found in the preceding study (Renaud & Kumral, 2020).…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uncertainty Management Associated With Project Scheduling in Mine Construction: A Coal Mining Case Study

Renaud

Kumral

2020

Preprint

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Due to the cyclical nature of commodity prices, the profitability of mining projects relies on proper timing. To ensure optimal profits, mines should be brought online at the time, which maximizes the potential value of the asset. In this paper, a coking coal mine construction case is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of scheduling large-scale construction projects with uncertain durations under price cyclicality. Project parameters are obtained stochastically via Monte Carlo sampling, allowing for the influence of uncertainty to be quantified. The critical path method and linear programming are employed to analyze the results and to optimize the construction process, ensuring the maximum value of the mining project. The parameters are repeatedly sampled to obtain distributions of possible project outcomes, allowing for risk and sensitivity quantification. The optimal schedule for construction was determined to be 247 weeks, with a most likely value of $813 million.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Monte Carlo Sampling-based Linear Programming Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Uncertainty Management Associated With Project Scheduling in Mine Construction: A Coal Mining Case Study

Renaud

Kumral

2020

Preprint

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“…4,5 The completion time of a mine construction project is highly sensitive to the commodity price cyclicity emerging from supply–demand imbalance. 6,7 The price cycles are described by boom-bust episodes indicating repeated expansion and recession periods of commodity prices. 8,9 Typical commodity price cycles are represented in Figure 1.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trade-off between time and cost in project planning: a simulation-based optimization approach

Senses,

Kumral

2023

SIMULATION

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Mine development or construction projects should be carefully scheduled to meet the project objectives in terms of duration, budget, and scope since they include many highly time- and cost-sensitive activities. The inherent complexity in mining operations, coupled with material, equipment, and resource availabilities, commodity price cyclicality, and market trend uncertainties, can lead to a high risk to the project, resulting in schedule and cost overruns. Therefore, these projects must be planned and controlled efficiently to ensure that the required capital investment does not exceed the project budget and the project deadline is met. This paper proposes a simulation-based model to optimize the trade-off between time and cost of project planning problems under uncertainty. In doing so, equally probable realizations are generated considering different project duration crashing scenarios to quantify the impact of uncertainty on the total project cost and project completion time, and risks are assessed. A numerical example is provided to show the performance of the proposed approach through an underground mine development project. Statistical analysis of the results obtained from the developed simulation model identifies the risk of project completion time, the criticality of activities, and bottleneck activities of the project. In addition, the time–cost trade-off is achieved under the project deadline and budget constraints by implementing 20,736 different crashing scenarios. Finally, the results obtained from the developed formulation are compared with those obtained from the linear programming solution. The proposed approach has a strong potential to add value to project management of mining projects.

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It takes more than the project manager: The importance of senior management support for successful social sector projects

Ahmed¹,

Philbin²

2022

Project Leadership and Society

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Planning a Complex Mine Construction Project under Price Cyclicality

Cited by 6 publications

References 18 publications

Uncertainty Management Associated With Project Scheduling in Mine Construction: A Coal Mining Case Study

Uncertainty Management Associated With Project Scheduling in Mine Construction: A Coal Mining Case Study

Trade-off between time and cost in project planning: a simulation-based optimization approach

It takes more than the project manager: The importance of senior management support for successful social sector projects

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