Planning for natural disasters in a stochastic world

Lave, Lester B.; Apt, Jay

doi:10.1007/s11166-006-0174-9

Cited by 11 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Lave et al (1990) uses explicit cost-benefit analyses to show that the responsive option of evacuation allows preserving peoples' lives at much lower costs. Nevertheless, in a later study (Lave and Apt 2006) it is argued that authorities might be reluctant to actually order an evacuation when warranted due to the uncertainty, lack of experience, and fear of financial liability involved in the process of evacuation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations

2011

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Dynamic traffic simulation models are frequently used to support decisions when planning an evacuation. This contribution reviews the different (mathematical) model formulations underlying these traffic simulation models used in evacuation studies and the behavioural assumptions that are made. The appropriateness of these behavioural assumptions is elaborated on in light of the current consensus on evacuation travel behaviour, based on the view from the social sciences as well as empirical studies on evacuation behaviour. The focus lies on how travellers' decisions are predicted through simulation regarding the choice to evacuate, departure time choice, destination choice, and route choice. For the evacuation participation and departure time choice we argue in favour of the simultaneous approach to dynamic evacuation demand prediction using the repeated binary logit model. For the destination choice we show how further research is needed to generalize the current preliminary findings on the location-type specific destination choice models. For the evacuation route choice we argue in favour of hybrid route choice models that enable both following instructed routes and en-route switches. Within each of these discussions, we point at current limitations and make corresponding suggestions on promising future research directions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations

2011

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“…The literature suggests that the construction of dams, seawalls, and levees lowers one's risk perception and may increase risk exposure if individuals feel secure in areas protected by such structures. (10)(11)(12)(13)(14) In addition, public disaster aid may crowd out private investment in self-protection actions against flood hazards. (15)(16)(17)(18) However, the public policies that focus on land-use planning, development regulation, and public awareness of local flood hazards can reduce vulnerability and mitigate negative consequences.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System

Fan

Davlasheridze

2015

Risk Analysis

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Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly.

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“…Short-term political and economic interests often provide strong incentives to engage in activities that greatly increase vulnerability to future storms (Bagstadt et al 2007;Lave and Apt 2006). In many parts of the developed world, there may also be overconfidence in the ability of forecasters to accurately predict future storms and their tracks, allowing sufficient lead time to take action to protect lives, if not all property.…”

Section: What Does All This Mean For Decision Makers?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical cyclones, climate change, and scientific uncertainty: what do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done?

Grossmann

Morgan

2011

Climatic Change

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The question of whether and to what extent global warming may be changing tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of great interest to decision makers. The presence of a possible climate change signal in TC activity is difficult to detect because interannual variability necessitates analysis over longer time periods than available data allow. Projections of future TC activity are hindered by computational limitations and uncertainties about changes in regional climate, large scale patterns, and TC response. This review discusses the state of the field in terms of theory, modeling studies and data. While Atlantic TCs have recently become more intense, evidence for changes in other basins is not persuasive, and changes in the Atlantic cannot be clearly attributed to either natural variability or climate change. However, whatever the actual role of climatic change, these concerns have opened a "policy window" that, if used appropriately, could lead to improved protection against TCs.

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Planning for natural disasters in a stochastic world

Cited by 11 publications

References 19 publications

A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations

A review on travel behaviour modelling in dynamic traffic simulation models for evacuations

Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System

Tropical cyclones, climate change, and scientific uncertainty: what do we know, what does it mean, and what should be done?

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