Planning transport infrastructures in an uncertain context. Analysis and limits to contemporary planning in France

Abstract

Introduction The planning of transport infrastructures in France has been marked by three major developments: the European reform concerning the opening of rail transport to competition, the privatisation of semi-public motorway concession-holding companies, and the use of public-private partnership contracts. This article proposes examining the following research question: how to plan a series of infrastructure projects within an uncertain context? The methodology (i) analyses whether the objectives (traffic, travel time, safety, cost, socio-economic profitability, financial profitability) of the 12 motorway and HSL projects built since the 1990s have been attained with the new planning procedure (such as risk management methods, financial risk assessment, impact assessment, public consultation) (ii) compares the additional costs and delays for three HSL projects according to their type of financing and whether or not they have used these planning procedures. Results The analysis shows that traffic levels are lower than forecasts for 8 projects. The cost is greater than the forecasts for all infrastructures. The socio-economic profitability and the financial profitability are also lower than forecasts for approximately two-thirds of the projects. Conclusion The social, political, institutional and environmental risks are generally well identified and treated by the client, no matter whether public or private.. The risk of additional cost is less well covered. The traffic risk remains a topical issue. Anticipating risks is liable to produce other risks, such as overcosts or opposition. It seems necessary to deepen the traffic forecast studies and to develop the multi criteria analysis method that can take account of the different points of view from the consultation.

The contributions of socio-environmental information maps in an environmental mobilisation: the case of a fight against a highway project in France

“…This is strengthened by the fact that when a new highway is built between two cities of different sizes, the improvement in accessibility tends to benefit the bigger of the two, as shown by studies performed in France (Puga 2002), Japan (Kim and Han 2016;Kakumoto 1999), South Korea (Jun and Kang 2007), and the United States (Funderburg et al 2010). As stated by Rokicki and Stępniak (2018), Zembri-Mary (2017) and Bröcker and Rietveld (2009), it is therefore not possible to systematically demonstrate theoretical predictions linking better accessibility with greater economic dynamism. While certain economic actors and inhabitants may benefit from improved accessibility to employment areas (Kim and Han 2016), others may suffer from the infrastructure more than they benefit from it.…”

Investigating Risks to the Implementation of the Great Equatorial Landbridge (GELB) Highway Project across Africa

“…Fundamentally, there is concurrence within reviewed literature that all projects face risks, and transport projects are no exception. Several authors, including [46][47][48][49] affirm that risk and uncertainty are systemic to transport projects. A number of these studies have examined risks to the implementation of highway projects [50,51], while others have particularly investigated risks associated with transboundary highway links [21,27,44,52,53].…”

Optimization of processes in railways based on the cost management model

“…The system of freight transportations are subject to delays which impact the investment decisions. In turn, costs depend on correct and timely input data [2,3,4,5].…”