Plant Responses to Elevated Temperatures: A Field Study on Phenological Sensitivity and Fitness Responses to Simulated Climate Warming

Abstract

Significant changes in plant phenology have been observed in response to increases in mean global temperatures. There are concerns that accelerated phenologies can negatively impact plant populations. However, the fitness consequence of changes in phenology in response to elevated temperature is not well understood, particularly under field conditions. We address this issue by exposing a set of recombinant inbred lines of Arabidopsis thaliana to a simulated global warming treatment in the field. We find that plants exposed to elevated temperatures flower earlier, as predicted by photothermal models. However, contrary to life-history trade-off expectations, they also flower at a larger vegetative size, suggesting that warming probably causes acceleration in vegetative development. Although warming increases mean fitness (fruit production) by ca. 25%, there is a significant genotype-by-environment interaction. Changes in fitness rank indicate that imminent climate change can cause populations to be maladapted in their new environment, if adaptive evolution is limited. Thus, changes in the genetic composition of populations are likely, depending on the species' generation time and the speed of temperature change. Interestingly, genotypes that show stronger phenological responses have higher fitness under elevated temperatures, suggesting that phenological sensitivity might be a good indicator of success under elevated temperature at the genotypic level as well as at the species level.

Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of Stipa Tenacissima L. Ecosystems in North African Arid Zone ‒ A Case Study in Tunisia

“…Our findings were consistent with previous results; Precipitation and temperature are consistently highlighted as influential in the distribution of plants (Xu et al, 2013;Springate and Kover, 2014), mainly precipitation exerts primary control of plant productivity and composition in semi-arid and arid land plant community (Passey et al, 1982;Graetz et al, 1988). In the study area, the distribution of S. tenacissima seemed to be driven by a range of predictor variables of which the most important are annual precipitation, and maximum temperature of warmest month.…”

Multiple soil nutrient competition between plants, microbes, and mineral surfaces: model development, parameterization, and example applications in several tropical forests

“…Terrestrial ecosystem growth and function are continuously altered by climate (e.g., warming, drought; Chaves et al, Springate and Kover, 2014), external nutrient inputs (e.g., N deposition; Matson et al, 1999Matson et al, , 2002, and atmospheric composition (e.g., CO 2 concentration; Norby et al, 2010;Oren et al, 2001;Reich et al, 2006). Improved understanding of the underlying mechanisms regulating ecosystem responses to environmental changes has been obtained through in situ level to large-scale and long-term manipulation experiments.…”

Prediction of Arctic plant phenological sensitivity to climate change from historical records

“…The timing of flowering and fruiting (phenology) is often influenced by temperatures in the month or two preceding flowering or fruiting (Fitter, Fitter, Harris, & Williamson, 1995;Panchen & Gorelick, 2015;Panchen, Primack, Aniśko, & Lyons, 2012). Phenological temperature sensitivity has been used to identify plants that are indicators of climate change and the responsiveness of plants to climate change (Bertin, 2015;Gallagher, Leishman, & Hughes, 2009;Menzel et al, 2006;Panchen et al, 2012;Rumpff, Coates, & Morgan, 2010;Springate & Kover, 2014). Herbarium specimens, pressed plants often collected in flower or fruit, provide a reliable historical record of flowering and fruiting phenology for use in phenology-climate change studies (Davis, Willis, Connolly, Kelly, & Ellison, 2015).…”