A comprehensive study of the seismic hazard related to the four NNP sites in NW switzerland was performed within the project PEGAsOs. to account for the epistemic uncertainties involved in the process of the characterization of seismic source zones in the frame of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, four different expert teams have developed and defended their models in the frame of an intensive elicitation process.Here, the results of one out of four expert groups are presented. the model of this team is based first of all on considerations regarding the large scale tectonics in the context of the Alpine collision, and neotectonic constraints for defining seismic source zones. this leads to a large scale subdivision based on the structural 'architectural' considerations with little input from the present seismicity. Each of the eight large zones was characterized by the style of present-day faulting, fault orientation, and hypocentral depth distribution. A further subdivision of the larger zones is performed based on information provided by the seismicity patterns. 58 small source zones have been defined in this way, each of them characterized by the available tectonic constrains, as well as the pros and cons of different existing geologic views connected to them. Of special concern in this respect were the discussion regarding thin skinned vs. thick skinned tectonics, the tectonic origin of the 1356 basel earthquake, the role of the Permo-carboniferous graben structures, and finally the seismogenic orientation of faults with respect to the recent crustal stress field. the uncertainties connected to the delimitations of the small source zones have been handled in form of their regrouping, formalized by the logic tree technique.the maximum magnitudes were estimated as discretized probability distribution functions. After declustering the used EcOs earthquake catalogue and an analysis of data completeness as a function of time the parameters of the frequency-magnitude relations were derived within their uncertainties.
Introductionthe sites of the four nuclear power plants (NPP) in NW switzerland have been subject to a comprehensive analysis of seismic hazard evaluated in the frame of the PEGAsOs project (Abrahamson et al. 2004; coppersmith et al., this volume). the definition of seismic source zones (ssZ) and the derivation of the parameters characterizing the seismic activity in each ssZ are integral parts of any probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. Here we present the results of one of the four expert groups (EG1b) responsible for the delineation of ssZ and determining the seismic activity parameters in the source zones.the study area was set up as the envelope of the radii of 300 km around all sites studied. this guarantees that the study area encompasses all seismic sources which have a seismic influence on the target sites. It extends well beyond the territory of switzerland, covering the southwestern parts of Germany, the western parts of Austria, the adjacent parts of northern Italy and n...