Abstract. The Paris agreement aims to hold global warming to well below 2 ∘C and
to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial
period. Recent estimates based on population growth and intended carbon
emissions from participant countries suggest global warming may exceed this
ambitious target. Here we present glacier volume projections for the end of
this century, under a range of high-end climate change scenarios, defined as
exceeding +2 ∘C global average warming relative to the pre-industrial
period. Glacier volume is modelled by developing an elevation-dependent mass
balance model for the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES). To do
this, we modify JULES to include glaciated and unglaciated surfaces that
can exist at multiple heights within a single grid box. Present-day mass
balance is calibrated by tuning albedo, wind speed, precipitation, and
temperature lapse rates to obtain the best agreement with observed mass
balance profiles. JULES is forced with an ensemble of six Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, which were downscaled using
the high-resolution HadGEM3-A atmosphere-only global climate model. The
CMIP5 models use the RCP8.5 climate change scenario and were selected on the
criteria of passing 2 ∘C global average warming during this century. The
ensemble mean volume loss at the end of the century plus or minus 1 standard
deviation is -64±5 % for all glaciers excluding those on the
peripheral of the Antarctic ice sheet. The uncertainty in the multi-model
mean is rather small and caused by the sensitivity of HadGEM3-A to the
boundary conditions supplied by the CMIP5 models. The regions which lose
more than 75 % of their initial volume by the end of the century are
Alaska, western Canada and the US, Iceland, Scandinavia, the Russian Arctic, central
Europe, Caucasus, high-mountain Asia, low latitudes, southern Andes, and New
Zealand. The ensemble mean ice loss expressed in sea level equivalent
contribution is 215.2±21.3 mm. The largest contributors to sea level
rise are Alaska (44.6±1.1 mm), Arctic Canada north and south (34.9±3.0 mm), the Russian Arctic (33.3±4.8 mm), Greenland (20.1±4.4), high-mountain Asia (combined central Asia, South Asia east and west),
(18.0±0.8 mm), southern Andes (14.4±0.1 mm), and Svalbard (17.0±4.6 mm). Including parametric uncertainty in the calibrated mass
balance parameters gives an upper bound global volume loss of 281.1 mm
of sea level equivalent by the end of the century. Such large ice losses will
have inevitable consequences for sea level rise and for water supply in
glacier-fed river systems.