Point estimation method: Validation, efficiency improvement, and application to embankment slope stability reliability analysis

Chen, Zuyu; Du, Jifang; Yan, Jijun; Sun, Peng; Li, Kangping; Li, Yanlong

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2019.105232

Cited by 29 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…In the Qinghai region, large loess areas existed, where there are mountainous topographical features and have a high incidence of severe landslides. e occurrences of landslides are extremely complicated and affected by many factors such as geologic structure, lithological association, topography, rainfall, earthquake, and human activity [8][9][10][11][12]. Based on these factors, various assessing methods have been proposed to analyze the landslide susceptibility, which can be divided into two categories: qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis [13][14][15][16][17][18].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

GIS‐Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Information, Frequency Ratio, and Artificial Neural Network Methods in Qinghai Province, Northwestern China

Wang

Chen

2021

Advances in Civil Engineering

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Landslides are one of the nature hazards causing a lot of casualties and property losses in the world. Over the last decades, many researchers have made contributions in landslide susceptibility maps using qualitative and quantitative methods. Parameters of DEM, geology, etc. are selected to analyze the mechanism of landslides. The quality of data is essential in the landslide studies, and more credible results can be obtained if the data is adequate and accurate from the wide range of parameters. The aim of this study is to evaluate the landslide susceptibility of Huangyuan County of Qinghai. Through field investigations, 100 landslide disaster locations in the study area were selected, and 11 influencing factors including elevation, slope, aspect, plane curvature, profile curvature, road distance, river distance, fault distance, stratum rock property, vegetation coverage index, and terrain humidity index were selected as the influencing factors of landslide disaster based on GIS. In this paper, the information method (IM) model, frequency ratio (FR) model, and artificial neural network (ANN) model are used to evaluate the susceptibility of geological hazards, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of disaster points at different levels is used to test the evaluation accuracy of three models. The results show that factors that have great influence on landslides are associated with witness, and the terrain humidity index has the highest weight in the occurrences of landslide. The values of AUC indicate that the ANN model is the best evaluation model suitable for the study area and can be extremely useful for landslide hazard mitigation strategies. Based on the calculation of ANN model, three valley areas are determined with high landslide susceptibility, and necessary reinforcement measures should be taken.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

GIS‐Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Information, Frequency Ratio, and Artificial Neural Network Methods in Qinghai Province, Northwestern China

Wang

Chen

2021

Advances in Civil Engineering

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“…Based on the response surface methodology and first-order reliability method, Babu and Srivastava [16] performed reliability analyses for four selected rehabilitated earth dams. Delgado-Hernández et al [17] and Peyras et al [18] explored risk assessment of earth dams based on a continuous Bayesian network; Chen et al [19]optimized the point estimation method, solved the problem that a large amount of storage space is needed in the calculation process, and applied the point estimation method to embankment slope stability reliability analysis. Recently, several studies have introduced reliability theory into the assessment of ultrahigh dam slope stability.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Safety Standard for Special Class Damslopes Based on Reliability Analysis

Huang

Zheng

et al. 2020

Advances in Civil Engineering

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The risk of slope failure is determined by the degree of damage caused by the slope slide. For the special-high slope of some high-risk water conservancy and hydropower projects, the standard should be appropriately raised. Thus, the safety standard for these slopes is explored on the basis of reliability analysis. The slopes with high risk of failure are divided into special class I and special class II slopes depending on the risk levels and acceptable risk standards. The concept of reliability theory-based relative ratio of the safety margin is utilized to establish the relationship between annual failure probability and safety factor, thereby obtaining the reasonable safety factors for different slopes. Results show that the values of safety factors for special class I and special class II are 1.40 and 1.35, respectively. These results can provide a reference for exploring the safety standards of dams with a height of more than 200 m.

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“…In a deterministic approach, the safety condition of a dam is usually verified by Factors of Safety (FS). During the last four decades, different authors [6,7] have worked to quantify the variability in geotechnical materials and in developing methodologies to perform reliability analysis of slopes and embankments in different conditions [8][9][10][11]. Kumar et al [12] performed reliability analysis in a zoned dam using a deterministic GeoStudio package (Seepage/W and Slope/W software) with two different methods specifically multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and relevance vector machine (RVM).…”

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confidence: 99%

Reliability analysis of an earth dam in operating conditions using direct coupling

Siacara

Napa-García²,

Beck

et al. 2022

SN Appl. Sci.

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In this study, we present a numerical investigation of the direct coupling between the deterministic GeoStudio package (Seepage/W and Slope/W software) and the StRAnD reliability package for normal operating conditions of an existing old earth dam over time. Direct coupling avoids errors associated to point estimate methods and to using response surface surrogates. One relevant feature of the study is the use of realistic pore water pressures for each equilibrium analysis, accomplished by considering a long-term steady-state analysis as an initial condition, followed by four years of equilibrium analysis, before each transient seepage analysis. All reliability analysis were performed using the first-order reliability method. The most important random parameters found in sensitivity analyses are four dam body parameters (saturated hydraulic conductivity, ks; specific weight, γ; effective cohesion, c′; and friction angle, ϕ′) and two filter parameters (ks and ϕ′). A range of values of the relationship between the reliability index (β) and the factor of safety (FS) was found for all probabilistic and deterministic results. Finally, a large difference in terms of critical deterministic and probabilistic slip surfaces is identified for the same time of analysis. Article highlights Realistic pore water pressures used in dam equilibrium analysis, by considering random seepage analysis in previous 5 to 30 days. Direct coupling of deterministic and reliability softwares avoids errors associated to point estimate and response surface surrogate methods. Existing old earth dam studied in Normal Operating Condition. For same analysis time, large differences are observed between critical deterministic and probabilistic slip surfaces.

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Point estimation method: Validation, efficiency improvement, and application to embankment slope stability reliability analysis

Cited by 29 publications

References 26 publications

GIS‐Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Information, Frequency Ratio, and Artificial Neural Network Methods in Qinghai Province, Northwestern China

GIS‐Based Landslide Susceptibility Mapping Using Information, Frequency Ratio, and Artificial Neural Network Methods in Qinghai Province, Northwestern China

Safety Standard for Special Class Damslopes Based on Reliability Analysis

Reliability analysis of an earth dam in operating conditions using direct coupling

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