Polar amplification comparison among Earth’s three poles under different socioeconomic scenarios from CMIP6 surface air temperature

Abstract

The polar amplification (PA) has become the focus of climate change. However, there are seldom comparisons of amplification among Earth’s three poles of Arctic (latitude higher than 60 °N), Antarctica (Antarctic Ice Sheet) and the Third Pole (the High Mountain Asia with the elevation higher than 4000 m) under different socioeconomic scenarios. Based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, two types of PA index (PAI) have been defined to quantify the PA intensity and variations, and PAI1/PAI2 is defined as the ratio of the absolute value of surface air temperature linear trend over Earth’s three poles and that for global mean/over other regions except Earth’s three poles. Arctic warms fastest in winter and weakest in summer, followed by the Third Pole, and Antarctica warms least. The similar phenomenon proceeds when global warming of 1.5–2.0 °C, and 2.0–3.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. After removing the Earth’s three poles self-influence, all the PAI2s increase much more obviously relative to the PAI1s, especially the Antarctic PAI. Earth’s three poles warm faster than the other regions. With the forcing increasing, PA accelerates much more over Antarctica and the Third Pole, but becomes weaker over Arctic. This demonstrates that future warming rate might make a large difference among Earth’s three poles under different scenarios.

Robust and perfectible constraints on human-induced Arctic amplification

“…S1). In line with former studies 12,14 , a higher degree of amplification over the Arctic ocean is found in the mid-21st century (Fig. S2) or in a weaker emission scenario (Fig.…”

“…This value is much higher than the 2.6 ratio found at the end of the 21 st century (Fig. S9a), which is fully consistent with the fact that the regional Arctic feedbacks are time-evolving and forcingdependent 12,14 . This finding suggests that some Arctic feedbacks may be also sensitive to the base state and thus to biases in climate models.…”

“…The inter-model spread in AA has not been reduced in the latest CMIP6 global climate projections 3,12,14 (Fig. 1).…”

“…This positive Arctic LRF is a noteworthy regional exception given the overall negative LRF at the global scale. It is a seasonal phenomenon, triggered by sea surface temperature changes after sea-ice loss, and not by the degree of atmospheric stratification 14 . The key role of the declining sea ice cover may also explain why the inter-model spread of AA was found to decrease with increasing radiative forcings 12,14 .…”

Mg-doped SrTiO3 Photocatalyst with Ag-Co Cocatalyst for Enhanced Selective Conversion of CO2 to CO Using H2O as the Electron Donor

“…Climate change is a serious and escalating problem globally. 1,2 It is primarily attributed to the greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO2. 3 The concentration of atmospheric CO2 has reached over 400 ppm by 2013 and has been predicted to further increase in the near future.…”