Polar Cap Patch Prediction in the Expanding Contracting Polar Cap Paradigm

Abstract

Space weather can cause serious disturbances of global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) used for positioning and navigation purposes. This paper describes a new method to forecast space weather disturbances on GNSS at high latitudes, in which we describe the formation and propagation of polar cap patches and predict their arrival at the nightside auroral oval. The space weather prediction model builds on the expanding/contracting polar cap (ECPC) paradigm and total electron content (TEC) observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS) network. The input parameter is satellite observations of the interplanetary magnetic field at the first Lagrange point. To validate our prediction model, we perform a case study in which we compare the results from our prediction model to observations from the GPS TEC data from the MIT's Madrigal database, convection data from Super Dual Auroral radar network, and scintillation data from Svalbard. Our results show that the ECPC paradigm describes the polar cap patch motion well and can be used to predict scintillations of GPS signals at high latitudes.

The Spatial Variation of Large‐ and Meso‐Scale Plasma Flow Vorticity Statistics in the High‐Latitude Ionosphere and Implications for Ionospheric Plasma Flow Models

“…Flow measurements and models are necessary for estimating Joule heating (Billett et al., 2018; Kalafatoglu Eyiguler et al., 2018; Weimer, 2005), which is a key influence affecting the atmospheric drag on low‐Earth orbit satellites (Bruinsma et al., 2023; Fedrizzi et al., 2012). They are also required to predict the motion of patches of enhanced ionization in the polar cap (Eriksen et al., 2023; Fæhn Follestad et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2013), which can result in the disruption of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) signals from spacecraft (van der Meeren et al., 2015; Zhang et al., 2017).…”