Polar Ocean Observations: A Critical Gap in the Observing System and Its Effect on Environmental Predictions From Hours to a Season

Abstract

There is a growing need for operational oceanographic predictions in both the Arctic and Antarctic polar regions. In the former, this is driven by a declining ice cover accompanied by an increase in maritime traffic and exploitation of marine resources. Oceanographic predictions in the Antarctic are also important, both to support Antarctic operations and also to help elucidate processes governing sea ice and ice shelf stability. However, a significant gap exists in the ocean observing system in polar regions, compared to most areas of the global ocean, hindering the reliability of ocean and sea ice forecasts. This gap can also be seen from the spread in ocean and sea ice reanalyses for polar regions which provide an estimate of their uncertainty. The reduced reliability of polar predictions may affect the quality of various applications including search and rescue, coupling with numerical weather and seasonal predictions, historical reconstructions (reanalysis), aquaculture and environmental management including environmental emergency response. Here, we outline the status of existing near-real time ocean observational efforts in polar regions, discuss gaps, and explore perspectives for the future. Specific recommendations include a renewed call for open access to data, especially real-time data, as a critical capability for improved sea ice and weather forecasting and other environmental prediction needs. Dedicated efforts are also needed to make use of additional observations made as part of the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP; 2017–2019) to inform optimal observing system design. To provide a polar extension to the Argo network, it is recommended that a network of ice-borne sea ice and upper-ocean observing buoys be deployed and supported operationally in ice-covered areas together with autonomous profiling floats and gliders (potentially with ice detection capability) in seasonally ice covered seas. Finally, additional efforts to better measure and parameterize surface exchanges in polar regions are much needed to improve coupled environmental prediction.

Argo Data 1999–2019: Two Million Temperature-Salinity Profiles and Subsurface Velocity Observations From a Global Array of Profiling Floats

“…The use of Iridium has also enabled the geographical coverage of year-round Argo data to expand to the seasonal sea ice zones in the Southern Ocean (Wilson et al, 2019) and in the Arctic Ocean (Smith et al, 2019). Early attempts to sample the icecovered polar oceans showed high instrument mortality rates, either because of crushing between ice floes at the sea surface or hitting the bottom of the ice packs during ascent.…”

Observing System Evaluation Based on Ocean Data Assimilation and Prediction Systems: On-Going Challenges and a Future Vision for Designing and Supporting Ocean Observational Networks

“…The influence of the reduction of subsurface temperature and salinity data in the equatorial Pacific was discussed in the Tropical (Xue et al, 2017b) were summarized in order to highlight the importance of the array for seasonal forecasting . Consequently, the workshop recommended the scientists to make a proposal of reorganizing the TPOS, which includes buoys, Argo, other insitu measurements and satellite data, in a more efficient and sustainable way by launching the TPOS2020 project (Smith G. C. et al, 2019).…”

Observational Needs of Sea Surface Temperature

“…Fiducial Reference Measurements (FRM) and in situ data are described with respect to satellite validation activities and ensuring traceability for climate records. Centurioni et al (2019), Kent et al (2019), and Smith et al (2019) address these surface-based observations in more detail. We conclude with a community-consensus vision for the next decade and beyond as a set of recommendations.…”