Polarisation and Electoral Realignment: The Case of the Right-Wing Parties in Spain

Abstract

The article analyses the consequences of elite polarisation at the mass level. We study the electoral re-alignment within the right-wing Spanish electorate in recent years, whereby support for the long-predominant Partido Popular has been eroded dramatically to the benefit of new challengers.Measuring ideological polarisation at the party system level and at the individual level, we show how the polarising strategy implemented by the liberal Ciudadanos -and imitated by PP -to gain support from the right-wing electorate paved the way for a massive transfer of conservative voters to the radical-right Vox. The results provide counter-intuitive evidence about the electoral effects of elite polarisation: those individuals who perceived party polarisation less tended to vote more for the radical right party, while those who perceived greater polarisation among parties were more likely to vote for moderate forces.

Three Is a Crowd? Podemos, Ciudadanos, and Vox: The End of Bipartisanship in Spain

“…The liberal party moves from 6.4 in 2016 to 7 in April 2019, whereas the conservative PP was able to "come to the center" with the emergence of Vox, moving from 8.4 in 2016 to 8 in April 2019 and 7.8 in the November elections (a change of 0.6 points in just 3 years). All in all, comparing the extreme points of Figure 3 in the 2000s and in last elections, it is fair to say that polarization has grown significantly-although the electorate's placement (see the black circle points in Figure 3) have not changed significantly, as the average since 1977 to November 2019 is 4.7 and the standard deviation in these fifteen elections is only 0.14 points (Rodríguez-Teruel, 2021).…”

“…Whereas the electoral cycle that started in 2015 could be described as turbulent (Lagares et al, 2019;Méndez, 2020) and certainly as elections of the final cycle of a great crisis (Llera et al, 2018), the history of the Spanish party system after 1977 is better characterized by its stability. In this regard, there is certain consensus on the characterization of four electoral cycles in Spain's recent history, each one of them defined by different levels of fragmentation, patterns of competition among parties, and polarization (Montero, 1988;Linz and Montero, 2001;Rodríguez-Teruel, 2021). The first one, the foundational elections cycle, comprises the first two democratic elections after the restoration of democracy: 1977 and 1979.…”

Análisis del discurso parlamentario de VOX en la XIV Legislatura: crispación, polarización y nacionalpopulismo

“…Desde su origen, VOX se ha caracterizado por defender sus posiciones como un partido nuevo frente al poder y a las élites económicas y políticas; es decir, posiciones anti-establishment (Rodríguez-Teruel, 2020). No obstante, Ferreira no considera a VOX como estrictamente populista por no referirse explícitamente al pueblo, "La palabra 'pueblo' no es mencionada nunca, en comparación con apelaciones constantes a 'España' -más incluso que a 'los españoles'-.…”

The Asymmetrical Effect of Polarization on Support for Independence: The Case of Catalonia

“…In empirical terms, ideological polarization is usually treated as an aggregated feature of the party system (Dalton, 2008). In order to analyse it at the individual level, we can distinguish two dimensions of elite polarization (Lupu, 2015;Rodríguez-Teruel, 2021). On the one hand, horizontal polarization measures the ideological distances between parties as perceived by each individual, i.e., a voter's perception of the extent of elite polarization.…”

“…Challenger parties are especially likely to adopt centrifugal strategies to compete with mainstream forces by emphasizing polarizing issues, like immigration or anti-establishment rhetoric (de Vries & Hobolt, 2020; Morales et al, 2015;Szöcsik & Polyakova, 2018). However, mainstream parties may react by choosing similar polarizing strategies, in an attempt to contain their electoral losses (de Lange, 2012; Downes & Loveless, 2018;Rodríguez-Teruel, 2021). As a consequence of this centrifugal competition, voters may adopt clearer positions in those issues emphasized by parties (Bischof & Wagner, 2019), while mainstream parties may have a chance of mitigating their electoral losses because greater party system polarization can reduce party switching (Dejaeghere & Dassonneville, 2017).…”