Poleward Shift in Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Northwest Pacific During Warm Periods: Past and Future

Abstract

We used the top age of storm‐relocated coral blocks (SRCBs) from Xisha Islands and Huangyan Island, South China Sea (SCS), in combination with existing paleotempestology records and instrumental climatic data, to reconstruct the spatio‐temporal changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the past millennium, and to project its future trends in the Northwestern Pacific region. We found a positive correlation between the frequencies of TCs, typhoons, and super‐typhoons and the NINO3.4 on the interannual timescale during 1945–2019. TCs latitude has a significant positive correlation with sea surface temperature, with a northward migration rate of 80 ± 11 km per decade during 1951–2019. Coral δ18O can well indicate the month of paleo‐TCs occurrence. The frequency of SRCBs (and by inference, TCs) is relatively low during relatively warm periods (RWP) but high during relatively cold periods (RCP) in the SCS. The spatio‐temporal pattern inferred from paleotempestology records further supports the notion of North‐South migration in TC activity as revealed by the instrumental record in this study. TC activity mainly affected relatively low latitudes (e.g., Philippines, Vietnam, and Hainan, Guangdong, Taiwan) during the RCP (AD 1450–1900), but it migrated from low latitudes towards higher latitudes during the RWP (AD 1000–1450), affecting locations such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong, southwestern Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and even Northeast China. Fujian and northern Guangdong may be in a transition zone of paleo‐TC activity between the North and the South in the past millennium. As global warming continues, the mean tracks and landfall locations of TCs will continue to migrate northward in this region.

Integrating Climatological‐Hydrodynamic Modeling and Paleohurricane Records to Assess Storm Surge Risk

“…The field of paleotempestology has emerged as a new tool for reconstructing long‐term TC activity (Brandon et al., 2013; Donnelly & Woodruff, 2007; Liu & Fearn, 1993, 2000; Tan et al., 2023; Tao et al., 2021; van Hengstum et al., 2014; Yang et al., 2020, 2022). Paleotempestological records identify and date signatures of storm landfalls in natural archives (e.g., coarse grains in sediment cores (Donnelly & Woodruff, 2007; Liu & Fearn, 1993), increased latewood width in tree cores (Maxwell et al., 2021)).…”

The Limited Effect of Reduced Typhoon Frequency on Stream Hydrochemistry in a Subtropical Forest Watershed

“…A study on typhoons of the Asian Pacific reported that typhoon destructive potential has decreased by ∼35% in 2008–2012 compared to 1993–1997, mainly due to reductions in typhoon frequency and duration (Lin & Chan, 2015). In East Asia, typhoons are migrating poleward to locations such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Shandong of China, southwestern Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and even Northeast China (Tao et al., 2021), while Taiwan is experiencing reduced typhoon disturbance (Liang et al., 2017). Despite the importance of cyclones in characterizing ecosystem structure and function, few studies (if any) have examined how decreases in cyclone frequency affect ecosystem hydrochemistry.…”