POLICI: A web application for visualising and extracting yellow fever vaccination coverage in Africa

Hamlet, Arran; Jean, Kévin; Yactayo, Sergio; Benzler, Justus; Cibrelus, Laurence; Ferguson, Neil M.; Garske, Tini

doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.01.074

Cited by 16 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…The GLM quantifies geographic variation of the relative risk of YF report across the continent while each serological survey yields an estimate of the absolute transmission intensity in its specific location. For each of the 31 survey locations we can therefore estimate the local level of under-ascertainment by tying GLM predictions to estimated values of λ or R 0 whilst accounting for time-dependent vaccination coverage [15]. This level of under-ascertainment was then extrapolated across the endemic zone and the absolute transmission intensity was then inferred by combining it with the probability of YF report.…”

Section: Model Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We assumed a prior distribution for vaccine efficacy centred at 97.5% (95% confidence intervals: 82.9% to 99.7%) [16], with no waning of immunity [17]. The models were fitted based on the best yearly estimates of vaccination coverage [15]. Posterior samples of parameters were used to compute medians and 95% credibility intervals (CI) of model parameters and burden estimates.…”

Section: Model Fitting and Burden Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both model fitting and projections are based on vaccine-coverage estimates derived from a demographic model combining different sources of data regarding vaccination activities [15]. A majority of the data related to past vaccination activities are available under the form of the coverage achieved in specific areas.…”

Section: Plos Neglected Tropical Diseasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling

Jean

Hamlet²,

Benzler

et al. 2020

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

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Background To counter the increasing global risk of Yellow fever (YF), the World Health Organisation initiated the Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy. Estimating YF burden, as well as vaccine impact, while accounting for the features of urban YF transmission such as indirect benefits of vaccination, is key to informing this strategy. Methods and findings We developed two model variants to estimate YF burden in sub-Saharan Africa, assuming all infections stem from either the sylvatic or the urban cycle of the disease. Both relied on an ecological niche model fitted to the local presence of any YF reported event in 34 African countries. We calibrated under-reporting using independent estimates of transmission intensity provided by 12 serological surveys performed in 11 countries. We calculated local numbers of YF infections, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost based on estimated transmission intensity while accounting for time-varying vaccination coverage. We estimated vaccine demand and impact of future preventive mass vaccination campaigns (PMVCs) according to various vaccination scenarios. Vaccination activities conducted in Africa between 2005 and 2017 were estimated to prevent from 3.3 (95% CI 1.2-7.7) to 6.1 (95% CI 2.4-13.2) millions of deaths over the lifetime of vaccinees, representing extreme scenarios of none or maximal herd effects, respectively. By prioritizing provinces based on the risk of urban YF transmission in future PMVCs, an average of 37.7 million annual doses for PMVCs over eight years would avert an estimated 9,900,000 (95% CI 7,000,000-13,400,000) infections and 480,000 (180,000-1,140,000) deaths over the lifetime of vaccinees, corresponding to 1.7 (0.7-4.1) deaths averted per 1,000 vaccine doses.

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Section: Model Overviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Fitting and Burden Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling

Jean

Hamlet²,

Benzler

et al. 2020

PLoS Negl Trop Dis

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Last, while the current YF 17D vaccine is thought to be effective [76], 80% of the population needs to be vaccinated in areas with risk for YFV transmission to prevent outbreaks. This level of coverage requires significant support and commitment to national vaccination programs and control strategies as well as the capacity to predict where YF outbreaks may occur and adapt strategies to expand coverage to emerging at-risk areas [77][78][79][80][81].…”

Section: Disease Preventionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Disease Resurgence, Production Capability Issues and Safety Concerns in the Context of an Aging Population: Is There a Need for a New Yellow Fever Vaccine?

et al. 2019

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Yellow fever is a potentially fatal, mosquito-borne viral disease that appears to be experiencing a resurgence in endemic areas in Africa and South America and spreading to non-endemic areas despite an effective vaccine. This trend has increased the level of concern about the disease and the potential for importation to areas in Asia with ecological conditions that can sustain yellow fever virus transmission. In this article, we provide a broad overview of yellow fever burden of disease, natural history, treatment, vaccine, prevention and control initiatives, and vaccine and therapeutic agent development efforts.

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“…Oriental são responsáveis pela grande maioria dos casos da doença, (cerca de 90%) em todo o mundo a cada ano34 . Entretanto, entre 2016 e 2017, foi relatado o pior surto de febre amarela urbana africana dos últimos 30 anos.…”

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Febre amarela no Brasil

Tartaglia

Pacca

2019

Rev. Med. (São Paulo)

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POLICI: A web application for visualising and extracting yellow fever vaccination coverage in Africa

Cited by 16 publications

References 7 publications

Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling

Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling

Disease Resurgence, Production Capability Issues and Safety Concerns in the Context of an Aging Population: Is There a Need for a New Yellow Fever Vaccine?

Febre amarela no Brasil

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