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AbstractThis paper contributes to the literature on qualitative approaches to impact evaluation, particularly in complex contexts. It reports on substantive and methodological findings from four pilot studies of a protocol for qualitative impact evaluation of NGO sponsored rural development projects in Malawi and Ethiopia. Two of the projects aimed to build resilience to climate change through support for a spectrum of livelihood diversification activities, while two focused on smallholder involvement in the value chains of specific cash crops. The protocol was designed and tested through action research with the aim of generating evidence in a credible, timely and cost-effective way to confirm the causal theories underpinning project actions, as well as to explore incidental sources of change and unanticipated effects. The paper describes the methodology, provides an overview of findings and reflects on lessons learnt in addressing problems of attribution, confirmation bias and generalizability. It suggests scope for further development of responses to these issues based on self-reported attribution, partial blinding of respondents and nesting qualitative evaluation in quantitative monitoring.Key words: Impact evaluation, qualitative methods, food security, climate change adaptation, rural livelihoods, Malawi, Ethiopia, NGOs, confirmation bias, mixed methods, attribution
AcknowledgementThe authors are grateful to Moges Belay, Tefera Goshu, Peter Mvulu, Zenawi Zerihun, their field teams and interviewees for pioneering data collection using the QUIP. We are also grateful for help and support from staff of Self Help Africa and Farm Africa in Ethiopia, Ireland, Malawi and the UK, and to Myriam Volk who made a significant contribution to the project by helping to test the QUIP analysis methodology using NVivo.The Excel engineers at F1F9 in Bath and New Delhi continue to provide generous pro-bono support to the project in the form of ever more ingenious spreadsheets, and we are very grateful for their time and ideas. Lastly, thanks to Laura Camfield, Keetie Roelen and two anonymous reviewers for comments on an earlier draft.