Policies to decarbonize the Swiss residential building stock: An agent-based building stock modeling assessment

Nägeli, Claudio; Jakob, Martin; Catenazzi, Giacomo; Ostermeyer, York

doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111814

Cited by 26 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…(E) BSM (Physics simulation and agent-based to model building stock dynamics -Q4). Previous applications include state and transformation of the residential building stock of Switzerland (Nägeli et al, 2018(Nägeli et al, , 2020 as well as several European countries (Jakob et al, 2020b(Jakob et al, , 2020aOstermeyer et al, 2019aOstermeyer et al, , 2019b). (F) ResStock (Physics simulation -Q4).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Fennell¹,

Hove²,

Weinberg³

et al. 2021

Building Simulation Conference Proceedings

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Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) offer essential tools to determine the limits of inference of a model and explore the factors which have the most effect on the model outputs. However, despite a wellestablished body of work applying UA and SA to models of individual buildings, a review of the literature relating to energy models for larger groups of buildings undertaken by Fennell et al. ( 2019) highlighted very limited application at larger scales. This contribution describes the efforts undertaken by a group of research teams in the context of IEA-EBC Annex 70 working with a diverse set of Building Stock Models (BSMs) to apply global sensitivity analysis methods and compare their results. Since BSMs are a class of model defined by their output and coverage rather than their structure and inputs, they represent a diverse set of modelling approaches. Key challenges for the application of SA are identified and explored, including the influence of model form, input data types and model outputs. This study combines results from 7 different modelling teams, each using different models across a range of urban areas to explore these challenges and begin the process of developing standardised workflows for SA of BSMs.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A variety of different classification schemes for uncertainty (not only in the field of building simulations) exist, for example: (Booth et al, 2013;Coakley et al, 2014;Oberkampf et al, 2000;Walker et al, 2003). The principle aim of these classification schemes has been to map the diverse range of possible sources of uncertainty.…”

Section: Input Uncertaintiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Fennell¹,

Hove²,

Weinberg³

et al. 2021

Building Simulation Conference Proceedings

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Economic approaches to phaseout are also discussed in the domain of heating systems. Hypothetical in nature, these discussions have taken place within simulations of various policy intervention choices that include both pollution pricing instruments such as carbon taxes and subsidies to spur the installation of new heating technologies (Nageli et al 2020). Finally, economic instruments are the sole focus of the 'policy' category, reflecting discussions about policy features deemed to compromise decarbonisation outcomes.…”

Section: Policy Instrumentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The rise of phase-out as a critical decarbonisation approach: a systematic review

Trencher

Rinscheid

Rosenbloom

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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‘Phase-out’ is increasingly mobilised in research and policymaking as an approach to catalyse the gradual decline of technologies, substances and practices that compromise environmental sustainability objectives. This trend is particularly pronounced in the context of climate change, demonstrated by the accumulation of a vast body of scholarship over multiple decades. Our work provides the first systematic review of the state of this knowledge, mapping out how phase-out is studied and employed as a policy tool for mitigating climate change. We systematically review over 400 publications, spanning three decades (1990-2021) and diverse scientific fields. Our review asks: How has scholarly work discussed phase-out as an approach to mitigate climate change, and how has this changed over time? We tackle this question from five perspectives: (i) elements targeted by phase-outs, (ii) policy instruments, (iii) affected industries, (iv) geographic context, and (v) benefits besides climate change mitigation. Results reveal that phase-out has widely proliferated as a decarbonisation approach, developing into a bridging concept that links diverse communities of contemporary science and practice. This is reflected by engagement with manifold phase-out targets – stretching well beyond the usual suspects related to fossil fuels and end-use technologies – as well as discussion of a growing diversity of industries, policy instruments and geographies in the literature. This global proliferation of phase-outs is propelled by expectations of diverse co-benefits. Aside from gains for the environment, economy, society and health, we find widespread acknowledgment that phase-out can drive innovation and systemic change beyond mere substitution. Our study also identifies several underdeveloped and underrepresented directions meriting further study. These notably include phase-out activity beyond Europe, North America and China, hard-to-abate industry sectors and non-fossil fuel targets. We conclude by carving out broader implications for scholars and practitioners to inform future research directions and climate mitigation efforts.

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“…Their main findings in the end-use were that heating/cooling (depending on the climate) has the largest energy saving effect as well as emission reduction effect. Nägeli et al [13] conducted an investigation on which political measures can be used to reduce GHG emissions in the building sector. They found that ambitious targets can only be achieved by an almost complete phase-out of fossil fuel heating systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Historical Evolution and Scenarios Up to 2050 of Heating Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions of Residential Buildings in Vienna

Haas¹,

Ajanović²,

Lederer³

et al. 2022

J Energ Power Technol

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Today, the building sector poses a major problem concerning fossil fuel energy consumption and the corresponding emissions of local pollutants and global greenhouse gases (GHG). In addition, an increasing number of people are living in urban areas, and it is becoming challenging to provide the necessary living space and energy for heating in fast-growing cities. Currently, urban areas host approximately 50 % of the global population and generate 70 % of GHG. The core objective of this study is to analyze the historical development and to derive scenarios for the possible future development of the overall CO2 emissions in residential buildings in Vienna up to the year 2050, considering all relevant emissions from final energy, as well as the embedded emissions from the construction of new buildings, retrofitting, and rooftop apartment extensions. This study indicates the following key points: (i) The renovation of buildings by improving the thermal quality is the most favorable scenario strategy and produces the least CO2 emissions. (ii) The transition to the sustainable heating of buildings requires at least a temporary "investment" in embedded CO2 emission, e.g., in retrofitting and insulation of buildings to harvest reductions in CO2 emissions in the long run, from a smaller amount of energy used for heating. The major conclusions of this study are as follows: (i) To implement the most favorable renovation scenario, strong policy measures are required, such as standards for new buildings and for building retrofitting, as well as subsidies to ensure an accelerated refurbishment rate of the old low thermal building stock. (ii) It is important to reduce the CO2 emission of the final energy carriers, especially of district heating, by increasing the usage of renewable energy carriers such as biomass, solar, and geothermal.

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Policies to decarbonize the Swiss residential building stock: An agent-based building stock modeling assessment

Cited by 26 publications

References 22 publications

Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

Challenges and Lessons Learned in Applying Sensitivity Analysis to Building Stock Energy Models

The rise of phase-out as a critical decarbonisation approach: a systematic review

Historical Evolution and Scenarios Up to 2050 of Heating Energy Consumption and CO<sub>2</sub> Emissions of Residential Buildings in Vienna

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