Policy assessment for electromobility promotion in Colombia: A system dynamics approach

Lopez-Arboleda, Esteban; Sarmiento, Alfonso T.; Cardenas, Laura M.

doi:10.1016/j.trd.2023.103799

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…With a dedicated focus on the analysis of technological diffu-sion and policy evaluation, system dynamics distinguishes itself from other methodologies by capturing elements such as feedback, complexity, delays, and nonlinearities [20,21]. Several previous studies have utilized system dynamics to evaluate public policies in the transportation sector [1,[22][23][24][25][26].…”

Section: System Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These include vehicle price, autonomy, tax considerations, energy cost, and charging infrastructure accessibility. Furthermore, the model was calibrated in VENSIM (version 10.1.2) software using previously elucidated coefficients [25]. This discrete choice model enables utility values to be assigned to each vehicular technology and facilitates the discernment of the probability associated with selecting each technological option.…”

Section: Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The conceptual framework for constructing this discrete choice model was based on the seminal contributions from a previous study [25]. In adherence to the authors' methodology, a comprehensive set of five pivotal attributes was identified in the decision-making process for electric technologies [25]. These include vehicle price, autonomy, tax considerations, energy cost, and charging infrastructure accessibility.…”

Section: Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Module ❶, a discrete choice model was developed as an integral component of the system dynamics modeling methodology. The conceptual framework for constructing this discrete choice model was based on the seminal contributions from a previous study [25]. In adherence to the authors' methodology, a comprehensive set of five pivotal a ributes was identified in the decision-making process for electric technologies [25].…”

Section: Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Module ❶, a discrete choice model wa the system dynamics modeling methodology. T this discrete choice model was based on the sem [25]. In adherence to the authors' methodolo a ributes was identified in the decision-mak These include vehicle price, autonomy, tax c infrastructure accessibility.…”

Section: Model Structurementioning

confidence: 99%

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Policy Assessment for Energy Transition to Zero- and Low-Emission Technologies in Pickup Trucks: Evidence from Mexico

Garcia,

Cárdenas,

Morcillo

et al. 2024

Energies

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The transport sector is under scrutiny because of its significant greenhouse gas emissions. Essential strategies, particularly the adoption of zero- and low-emission vehicles powered by electricity, are crucial for mitigating emissions in road transport. Pickups, which are integral to Mexico’s fleet, contribute to such emissions. Thus, implementing effective policies targeting pickups is vital for reducing air pollution and aligning with Mexico’s decarbonization objectives. This paper presents a simulation model based on system dynamics to represent the adoption process of zero- and low-emission vehicles, with a focus on pickups and utilizing data from the Mexican case. Three policy evaluation scenarios are proposed based on the simulation model: business as usual; disincentives for zero- and low-emission vehicles; and incentives for unconventional vehicles. One of the most significant findings from this study is that even in a scenario with a greater number of vehicles in circulation, if the technology is fully electric, the environmental impact in terms of emissions is lower. Additionally, a comprehensive sensitivity analysis spanning a wide spectrum is undertaken through an extensive computational process, yielding multiple policy scenarios. The analysis indicates that to achieve a maximal reduction in the country’s emissions, promoting solely hybrid electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles is advisable, whereas internal combustion engines, vehicular natural gas, and battery electric vehicles should be discouraged.

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