Policy Uncertainty and Saving Attitude: Evidence from a Survey on Consumers

Morikawa, Masayuki

doi:10.1111/joca.12230

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…While Menegatti [14] and Christelis et al [3] did not provide evidence on the impact of uncertainty on consumption behavior, Masayuki et al [13] managed to reveal the impact of uncertainty on consumption and saving behavior. This study concluded that individuals are highly uncertain about social security policies, and such uncertainty may affect their saving and consumption behavior.…”

Section: Empirical Reviewsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unveiling the Determinants of Saving-Consumption Relationship: A Panel Data Approach

Sek¹,

Lai²

2022

MJMS

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The impact of uncertainty on saving is termed as precautionary saving. Thus, the main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of external global uncertainties on determining the saving-consumption relationship. In particular, we seek to compare the effect of two types of uncertainties, namely the monetary policy versus economic policy uncertainties in determining the behavior of saving-consumption. The results are compared between the top trade openness versus the least trade openness countries. Besides, the study also seeks to check for the existence and hence the effect of cross-section dependency in the relationship. For this purpose, the mean group (MG), pooled mean group (PMG) and common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) estimators are applied. The data is from the year 1985 to 2017. The results reveal the existence and significance effect of cross-section dependence among countries and uncertainties matter in the saving-consumption relationship. The main factors that contribute to savings are the GDP per capita and the economic policy uncertainty while the main factors that contribute to consumptions are the GDP per capita and the monetary policy uncertainty.

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Section: Empirical Reviewsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unveiling the Determinants of Saving-Consumption Relationship: A Panel Data Approach

Sek¹,

Lai²

2022

MJMS

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“…Second, it shakes residents’ confidence and results in the increase of precautionary savings. With fixed income, consumers will make more savings and spend less in the case of greater uncertainties ( Morikawa, 2019 ). On the contrary, the weaker feelings of uncertainties will motivate consumers to spend more and save less.…”

Section: Hypothesis and Propositionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of uncertain expectations on Chinese rural residents’ consumer behavior decisions: Theoretical analysis and empirical test

Liu

Liu²,

Ma³

2023

Front. Psychol.

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Economic uncertainty will result in consumers’ unstable environment expectations, thus affecting household consumption decisions. The paper established a consumption model though using the cointegration theory and ECM model, and used the annual data from 2002 to 2021 to examine the influence of uncertain expectations on the consumption behavior of rural residents in China. The research results show that consumers’ income, consumption, consumption habits liquidity constraints and precautionary savings jointly produce the feelings of uncertainty, which will lead to rural consumers’ uncertain expectations. Uncertain expectations will not only lead to rural residents the prudent consumption behavior of residents, but also lead to the lack of confidence of residents, forming phased consumption characteristics. Combining the results of the empirical analysis, this paper gives suggestions to promote rural consumption from the perspective of increasing rural residents’ income, reforming the income distribution system, improving the rural financial system, and reinforcing the construction of rural consumption infrastructure.

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“…According to the 'precautionary saving' theory, increased uncertainty positively affects savings because households are prudent and want to seek protection from uncertainty, which causes a significant adverse impact on current consumption and positive impact on savings. Previous research have tested this theory using different uncertainty measures (Aaberge et al, 2017;Giavazzi & McMahon, 2012;Morikawa, 2019;Coibion et al, 2021). A key challenge unaddressed in the literature to quantifying the policy uncertainty effect on household savings is the role of business cycle, as both uncertainty and savings tend to increase during economic downturns (Adema & Pozzi, 2015;Duca & Saving, 2018;Ludvigson et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The macroeconomic determinants and consequences of household financial behavior

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Policy Uncertainty and Saving Attitude: Evidence from a Survey on Consumers

Cited by 5 publications

References 51 publications

Unveiling the Determinants of Saving-Consumption Relationship: A Panel Data Approach

Unveiling the Determinants of Saving-Consumption Relationship: A Panel Data Approach

The influence of uncertain expectations on Chinese rural residents’ consumer behavior decisions: Theoretical analysis and empirical test

The macroeconomic determinants and consequences of household financial behavior

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