Policy Windows for Foreign Policy Shifts in Latin American and Caribbean States

Abstract

Why do leaders choose to drastically alter their state's international behavior? This article aims to identify common domestic and international conditions that led to a foreign policy shift (FPS). Given the difficulty associated with defining and measuring an FPS, this study advances a replicable and theoretically informed definition to guide case selection. This avoids both the type of selection bias evident in many previous qualitative analyses and the use of measurements that are not closely related to the concept as in preceding quantitative research designs. The subsequent historical analysis of FPSs in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1945 and 2008 identifies two causal paths that led to FPS. By one account, growing discontent with longstanding dictatorships led to political polarization and subsequent succession crises, including civil wars and/or international military intervention, from which new regimes/leaders emerged. By another, international isolation worsened economic conditions, causing leaders to implement administrative reforms to alter their foreign policy by conceding to pressures from major powers.

The effects of presidential breakdowns on foreign policy in Latin America

“…As the previous solution to political crises in Latin America affected foreign policy significantly, there are reasons to believe that there is a relationship to be unveiled between PBs and foreign policy. While military coups led to right‐wing, US‐friendly regimes, left‐wing revolutions brought leaders that adopted anti‐US foreign policies (Beltrão Sposito, 2018). Despite differences in the indicators, bad economic conditions and civil society mobilization relate to presidential and democratic breakdowns (Alvarez & Marsteintredet, 2010).…”