Polio eradication: what kind of world do we want?

Thompson, Kimberly M.

doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00458-8

Cited by 14 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The importance of effective containment of all live polioviruses also emerges after OPV cessation. The poor outcomes observed to date with respect to managing type 2 live poliovirus risks after OPV2 cessation (Duintjer Tebbens & Thompson, 2018; Kalkowska, Pallansch, Cochi, Kovacs, et al., 2021; Kalkowska, Pallansch, Wassilak, et al., 2021; Macklin et al., 2020; Thompson, 2022) should lead to questions about effective removal of all OPV from supply chains and the field, containment, and stockpile management. In the context of any potential ongoing nOPV use, such that children in some areas may inadvertently continue to receive oral doses of poliovirus vaccines, containment issues may continue to face challenges related to the delivery of different formulations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…After OPV2 cessation occurred, integrated modeling studies that reported on the status of OPV2 cessation as of end‐2016 (Thompson & Duintjer Tebbens, 2017a), early 2018 (Duintjer Tebbens & Thompson, 2018), end of 2019 (Kalkowska, Pallansch, Wassilak, et al., 2021), early 2020 (Kalkowska, Pallansch, Cochi, Kovacs, et al., 2021), and late 2021 (Thompson, 2022) focused on the need for improvements in implementing oSIAs and highlighted that the polio endgame was off‐track. Continued deficiencies in the promptness, scope, and/or quality of mOPV2 oSIAs continue to exacerbate the situation in many settings (Macklin et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences

Kalkowska¹,

Wassilak

Wiesen

et al. 2023

Risk Analysis

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Due to the very low, but nonzero, paralysis risks associated with the use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), eradicating poliomyelitis requires ending all OPV use globally. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated cessation of Sabin type 2 OPV (OPV2 cessation) in 2016, except for emergency outbreak response. However, as of early 2023, plans for cessation of bivalent OPV (bOPV, containing types 1 and 3 OPV) remain undefined, and OPV2 use for outbreak response continues due to ongoing transmission of type 2 polioviruses and reported type 2 cases. Recent development and use of a genetically stabilized novel type 2 OPV (nOPV2) leads to additional potential vaccine options and increasing complexity in strategies for the polio endgame. Prior applications of integrated global risk, economic, and poliovirus transmission modeling consistent with GPEI strategic plans that preceded OPV2 cessation explored OPV cessation dynamics and the evaluation of options to support globally coordinated risk management efforts. The 2022–2026 GPEI strategic plan highlighted the need for early bOPV cessation planning. We review the published modeling and explore bOPV cessation immunization options as of 2022, assuming that the GPEI partners will not support restart of the use of any OPV type in routine immunization after a globally coordinated cessation of such use. We model the potential consequences of globally coordinating bOPV cessation in 2027, as anticipated in the 2022–2026 GPEI strategic plan. We do not find any options for bOPV cessation likely to succeed without a strategy of bOPV intensification to increase population immunity prior to cessation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences

Kalkowska¹,

Wassilak

Wiesen

et al. 2023

Risk Analysis

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“…"…los chichillos hacíamos fila en el patio de la escuela y una enfermera vacunaba uno tras otro, sin cambiar la aguja… eran otros tiempos". más con la aparición de cepas vacunales que han recuperado la virulencia al circular en poblaciones muy pobres con bajas tasas de vacunación y carentes de servicios higiénicos (Thompson, 2022); un problema empeorado por la pandemia del COVID-19, debido a la interrupción de muchos servicios de salud, incluyendo los esquemas de vacunación básicos. La paradoja es que habiendo una vacuna efectiva, sea rechazada por la población afectada y que la enfermedad persista, lo que pone sobre el tapete el problema más angustiante que enfrenta la WHO: la desidia a la vacunación (Schuster et al, 2015).…”

Section: El Epílogo Que Jenner Nunca Hubiese Imaginadounclassified

Viruela: de la primera vacuna al nacimiento del primer movimiento antivacunas

Chavarría

2022

ARS med

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El último caso de viruela, la peor plaga que ha enfrentado la humanidad, fue diagnosticado hace 45 años y con él la enfermedad fue erradicada del planeta. Una hazaña épica iniciada a finales del siglo XVIII por Edward Jenner, el hombre que inoculó a su propio hijo con el pus de las lesiones de una ordeñadora que sufría viruela bovina, una enfermedad benigna antigénicamente relacionada con la viruela y que le confería inmunidad. Pocos años más tarde, en 1803, partía de España la "Real expedición filantrópica de la vacuna", llevando la vacuna a América y Asia, transportándola de brazo en brazo. A pesar del éxito de la vacuna, Jenner y la sociedad victoriana sufrieron los primeros movimientos antivacunas que hoy, en el contexto de la pandemia delCOVID-19, son catapultados por los sitios de noticias falsas que socaban el conocimiento científico.

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“…The eradication of indigenous transmission of wild polioviruses (WPVs) was certified for type 2 in 2015 [ 6 ] and for type 3 in 2019 [ 7 ]. Type 1 transmission remains limited to Pakistan and Afghanistan [ 8 , 9 ]. However, the polio endgame is complicated, particularly due to vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) [ 8 , 9 ].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Type 1 transmission remains limited to Pakistan and Afghanistan [ 8 , 9 ]. However, the polio endgame is complicated, particularly due to vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) [ 8 , 9 ]. Following the global eradication of WPV types 2 and 3, circulating VDPVs (cVDPVs) became the only reported cases for these types, and in 2021, for the first time, reported cases of type 1 cVDPVs exceeded those caused by WPVs [ 10 , 11 ].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Polio by the Numbers—A Global Perspective

Badizadegan¹,

Kalkowska²,

Thompson³

2022

The Journal of Infectious Diseases

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Background Investments in national immunization programs and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) have resulted in substantial reductions in paralytic polio worldwide. However, cases prevented because of investments in immunization programs and GPEI remain incompletely characterized. Methods Using a global model that integrates polio transmission, immunity, and vaccine dynamics, we provide estimates of polio incidence and numbers of paralytic cases prevented. We compare the results with reported cases and estimates historically published by the World Health Organization. Results We estimate that the existence and use of polio vaccines prevented 5 million cases of paralytic polio between 1960-1987 and 24 million cases worldwide for 1988-2021 compared to a counterfactual world with no polio vaccines. Since the 1988 resolution to eradicate polio, our estimates suggest GPEI prevented 2.5 to 6 million cases of paralytic polio compared to counterfactual worlds without GPEI that assume different levels of intensity of polio vaccine use in routine immunization programs. Discussion Analysis of historical cases provides important context for understanding and communicating the benefits of investments made in polio eradication. Prospective studies will need to explore the expected benefits of future investments, the outcomes of which will depend on whether and when polio is globally eradicated.

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Polio eradication: what kind of world do we want?

Cited by 14 publications

References 13 publications

Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences

Coordinated global cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine use: Options and potential consequences

Viruela: de la primera vacuna al nacimiento del primer movimiento antivacunas

Polio by the Numbers—A Global Perspective

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