“…Studies in these disciplines suggest that experienced experts are prone to overconfidence about their expertise, which further leads to judgment biases (e.g., Lin & Bier, 2008;Schrand & Zechman, 2012). In recent decades, political scientists and public administration scholars have paid substantial attention to bureaucratic power and influence, particularly in the context of budget politics, agenda control, and policy decision making (e.g., Altfeld & Miller, 1984;Bendor, Taylor, & Van Gaalen, 1985, 1987Gailmard & Patty, 2007;Makris, 2006;Niskanen, 1971;Stephenson, 2007). However, there has been little attention to bureaucrats' expertise and confidence as well as their possible relationships with policy choice.…”