Political Budget Cycles: The Case of Gabon

Abstract

This article analyzes the political-fiscal cycle in Gabon. In Africa, it seems that the analysis of the politico-fiscal cycle has not attracted much interest. This is particularly the case in Gabon, a small country of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (EMCCA). Unlike approaches based on the estimation of a single model linking the electoral cycle and a dimension of the state budget, we estimate four models each incorporating a different dimension of the state budget, namely: capital expenditures, total expenditures and the budget deficit. The estimation of a VAR Model (2) and three Error Correction Vector Models (ECVM) confirms the existence of an "opportunistic" politico-budgetary cycle in Gabon.