Political Events in a Model of Gubernatorial Approval

Abstract

Research on the public approval of American governors has focused almost exclusively on the impact of economic conditions on fluctuations in such approval. This article adds events variables to a model of gubernatorial public approval including the more commonly used economic variables, and tests this model in a time-series analysis in three states. The results suggest that the effect of political events is minimal and mixed. Furthermore, the analysis does not clearly support any general theory of gubernatorial approval. Instead, the factors that influence public support for governors seem to vary across time and state.

Relative Unemployment and Gubernatorial Popularity

“…Despite such an environment, considerable debate exists as to whether the public holds the governor accountable for the state's economy. Crew et al (2002), Hansen (1999a, 1999b), Howell and Vanderleeuw (1990), and Orth (2001) find that state unemployment lowers gubernatorial approval. In contrast, Crew and Weiher (1996) find no impact, Adams and Squire (2001) detect only spotty effects of state unemployment on gubernatorial approval, and MacDonald and Sigelman (1999) unearth no relationship between state economic health and gubernatorial popularity.…”

“…First, studies use different samples of states. Designs also differ, with some using time series (Adams and Squire 2001; Crew and Weiher 1996; Crew et al 2002; Hansen 1999b), others conduct cross‐sectional analyses with states as the units of analysis (MacDonald and Sigelman 1999), while still others analyze individual‐level survey data (Cohen 1983; Howell and Vanderleeuw 1990; Orth 2001). Studies also differ in their model specifications.…”

“…Studies also differ in their model specifications. Some control for national economic conditions (Crew and Weiher 1996; Crew et al 2002; Hansen 1999a, 1999b; Howell and Vanderleeuw 1990; Orth 2001), while others do not (Adams and Squire 2001; MacDonald and Sigelman 1999). Political variables, such as presidential approval, political predispositions, and time in office are also used inconsistently.…”

Public and Partisan Opinions of the Speaker of the House

“…Domestic political events, such as policy decisions and government budgets, allow individuals to evaluate governors and presidents (Crew et al 2002;Ellis and Faricy 2011;MacKuen 1983;Stimson 2004). Scandals and other matters of personal conduct also allow for the evaluation of the character and performance of public officials (Crew et al 2002;Durr, Gilmour, and Wolbrecht 1997;Kernell 1978).…”

Policy popularity: The Arizona immigration law

“…How well these findings apply to governor approval is somewhat controversial. Some studies show that state unemployment affects a governor's popularity (Leyden and Borrelli 1993;Hansen 1999;Crew et al 2002;Howell and Vanderleeuw 1990;Orth 2001), while others claim that governors have less to fear from their state economies (Chubb 1988;Peltzman 1987).…”