Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984

Alesina, Alberto; Sachs, Jeffrey

doi:10.2307/1992667

Cited by 456 publications

(219 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The second generation of models that were developed subsequently incorporated the idea of rational expectations and this is referred to as 'Rational Partisan Theory'. In these models too, parties with different ideologies can affect macroeconomic outcomes, although this is more likely during the first half of their terms in office (Chappell and Keech, 1986;Alesina, 1987;Alesina and Sachs, 1988). One may therefore wonder whether partisan cycles are reflected in the valuation of stocks.…”

Section: Political Orientation Of the Leadership And Stock Markementioning

confidence: 99%

Is There a Link between Politics and Stock Returns? A Literature Survey

Wisniewski

2015

SSRN Journal

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This survey starts by reviewing the literature investigating whether political connectedness of companies creates wealth for their shareholders. It then moves on to examine whether there is an association between the orientation of the political executive or the phase of the electoral cycle with movements of the stock market index. The price impact of politically-relevant events, such as wars, terrorist attacks, revolutions, coups or issuance of communications by those in positions of power is also discussed. The review closes with an examination of the impact of political uncertainty on stock markets and with a reflection on the direction of causality.JEL codes: G12; G14; G18; F50

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Section: Political Orientation Of the Leadership And Stock Markementioning

confidence: 99%

Is There a Link between Politics and Stock Returns? A Literature Survey

Wisniewski

2015

SSRN Journal

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“…In the United States, party ideology has played an important role in fiscal policy at the federal level (e.g., Blomberg and Hess 2003;Haynes and Stone 1990;Alesina and Sachs 1988;Krause and Bowman 2005;Broz 2011). Confirming traditional partisan theory, many studies at the state level also find that leftwing politicians pursued more expansionary fiscal policy than rightwing politicians.…”

Section: Policies and Institutionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The size and scope of government in the US states: does party ideology matter?

Bjørnskov

Potrafke

2013

Int Tax Public Finance

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. (2011) that considers spatial and temporal differences in Democratic and Republican Party ideology. We distinguish between three types of divided government: overall divided government, proposal division and approval division. The main result suggests that Republican governors have been more active in deregulating labor markets. We find that ideologyinduced policies were counteracted under overall divided government and proposal division. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor mayJEL Code: D72, H70, O51.

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“…Where underlying economic preferences are concerned, members could prefer different absolute levels of inflation because they trade-off short-term inflation and unemployment in different ways (Hibbs 1977;Alesina and Sachs 1988). For example, the same rate of inflation will affect different sectors of the economy in different ways.…”

Section: Understanding and Measuring Voting Behaviour In The Mpcmentioning

confidence: 99%

From Doves to Hawks: A Spatial Analysis of Voting in the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, 1997-2007

2007

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This paper examines the making of UK monetary policy between 1997 and 2007 using an analysis of voting behaviour in the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).We use a Bayesian method to estimate the interest rate policy preferences of the MPC members on a 'dove-hawk' scale. Then, by comparing the 'ideal points' of outgoing members with their successors, we find evidence that MPC composition complements the fiscal policies pursued by the government. The revealed preferences of the MPC members suggest three distinct groups; 'the doves', who favour lower interest rates than the median committee member; 'the centrists', whose revealed preferences are in line with the median committee member; and 'the hawks', who favour higher interest rates than the median committee member. Our analysis suggests that the 'opposition' to the centrist group changes from the doves to the hawks as the spending policies of the government ceased to be constrained by the 1997 electoral promise to maintain conservative spending plans.3

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Political Parties and the Business Cycle in the United States, 1948-1984

Cited by 456 publications

References 9 publications

Is There a Link between Politics and Stock Returns? A Literature Survey

Is There a Link between Politics and Stock Returns? A Literature Survey

The size and scope of government in the US states: does party ideology matter?

From Doves to Hawks: A Spatial Analysis of Voting in the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, 1997-2007

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