Political Trust and Negative Campaigns: Two Tests of the Figure‐Ground Hypothesis

Abstract

Despite what many Americans believe, there is little evidence that increased campaign negativity has contributed to the loss of public trust in government in recent decades. In this article, we consider the relationship between negative campaigning and trust in a different light. The “figure‐ground hypothesis” suggests that negative information is more likely than positive information to shape people's attitudes and behavior, in part because negativity “stands out” in a world where most of us have positive expectations of others. Accordingly, we posit that negative campaign ads are most effective among those who possess a high level of trust in their political leaders. The catch is that high trust is uncommon in U.S. politics today, in which case negative appeals may play to a smaller audience than in the past. Our data indicate, however, that a well‐conceived negative campaign ad can influence voter choice regardless of one's feelings about government. Related Articles Related Media Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. . “Trust in Government Nears Record Low, But Most Federal Agencies Are Viewed Favorably.” October 18. http://www.people‐press.org/2013/10/18/trust‐in‐government‐nears‐record‐low‐but‐most‐federal‐agencies‐are‐viewed‐favorably/ University of Wisconsin Advertising Project. . “Overview.” http://wiscadproject.wisc.edu/ Efowler. . “Presidential Ads 70 Percent Negative in 2012, Up from 9 Percent in 2008.” http://mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/2012/05/02/jump‐in‐negativity/

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