Abstract. We present the first representation of grass pollen in a 3-D dispersion model in Australia, tested using observations from eight counting sites in
Victoria. The region's population has high rates of allergic rhinitis and
asthma, and this has been linked to the high incidence of grass pollen
allergy. Despite this, grass pollen dispersion in the Australian atmosphere
has not been studied previously, and its source strength is untested. We
describe 10 pollen emission source methodologies examining the strengths of
different immediate and seasonal timing functions, and the spatial distribution
of the sources. The timing function assumes a smooth seasonal term, modulated
by an hourly meteorological function. A simple Gaussian representation of the
pollen season worked well (average r=0.54), but lacked the spatial and
temporal variation that the satellite-derived enhanced vegetation index (EVI)
can provide. However, poor results were obtained using the EVI gradient
(average r=0.35), which provides the timing when grass turns from maximum
greenness to a drying and flowering period; this is due to noise in the
spatial and temporal variability from this combined spatial and seasonal
term. Better results were obtained using statistical methods that combine
elements of the EVI dataset, a smooth seasonal term and instantaneous
variation based on historical grass pollen observations (average r=0.69). The
seasonal magnitude is inferred from the maximum winter-time EVI, whereas the
timing of the season peak is based on the day of the year when the EVI falls
to 0.05 below its winter maximum. Measurements are vital to monitor changes
in the pollen season, and the new pollen measurement sites in the Victorian
network should be maintained.