Polynomial chaos expansion for lifetime assessment and sensitivity analysis of reinforced concrete structures subjected to chloride ingress and climate change

Abstract

Chloride-induced corrosion is one of the main causes leading to the lifetime reduction of reinforced concrete (RC) structures in marine environments or subjected to de-icing salts. Modeling chloride ingress into concrete in a comprehensive way is therefore a crucial task to evaluate corrosion initiation risk and carry out preventive maintenance. Nevertheless, this comprehensive modeling is a challenging task that requires solving simultaneously a set of coupled non-linear partial differential equations. This task becomes more complex if the inherent uncertainties of the process are considered for probabilistic lifetime assessment. The present research aims to assess the probability of corrosion initiation of RC structures. The polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) method is employed to propagate uncertainties in a chloride ingress model requiring significant computational time to perform one deterministic simulation. PCE is also applied to perform a sensitivity analysis to determine which are the more influential random variables in the problem. The proposed methodology is applied to RC structures placed in several locations in France (Brest, Marseille, and Strasbourg) and subjected to realistic environmental conditions including climate change. The results show that the PCE-based model is accurate and efficient for lifetime assessment of RC structures subject to chloride-induced corrosion.

Probabilistic failure analysis, performance assessment, and sensitivity analysis of corroded reinforced concrete structures

“…where E(•) denotes the expectation of (•). Moreover, Si and STi could be calculated by (25) where I * i denotes the set of all indices in the i-th element.…”

“…Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) based probabilistic analysis methods have received extensive attention due to their high accuracy and efficiency in establishing surrogate models [24,25]. In addition, PCE-based methods allow the SA of random variables, i.e., global SA, by integrating full randomness and variability of input and output variables.…”

“…However, few studies have been done in PCE-based probabilistic analysis for corroded RC structures. For instance, Bastidas-Arteaga et al [25] developed a PCE-based probabilistic model for global SA of RC structures suffering from chloride-induced corrosion, but their study focused on the initiation period (Serviceability limit state, SLS) rather than the propagation period (Ultimate limit state, ULS). Thus, it is of vital importance to conduct a complete analysis of structural performance, considering both SLS and ULS.…”

Conditional seasonal markov-switching autoregressive model to simulate extreme events: Application to river flow

“…All physical systems change and suffer a loss in capacity through time due to progressive deterioration (corrosion, fatigue, creep, etc.) [1][2][3] or shockbased deterioration (extreme events) [4]. This decrease in capacity yields an increase in the likelihood of failure and therefore, regular inspections and maintenance are essential to ensure adherence to the necessary safety standards [5][6][7].…”

A Cost‐Benefit Methodology for Selecting Analytical Reinforced Concrete Corrosion Onset Models

“…Corrosion of steel is known as one of the phenomena that significantly reduces the life cycle of reinforced concrete structures [2,3] increasing failure risks [4]. Some studies have been conducted to improve maintenance strategies against this pathology and taking into account uncertainties [5][6][7][8][9][10][11].…”