Populația Republicii Moldova la 30 de ani de independență: provocări principale și politici necesare

Gagauz, Olga; Buciuceanu-Vrabie, Mariana; Pahomii, Irina

doi:10.36004/nier.ccd.2021.978-9975-89-248-3

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…Recent trends in migration flows (over the last 10 years) point to a decrease in migration to Russia and Southern European countries, and an increase in migration to Western Europe, especially to countries such as Germany, France and the United Kingdom (Gagauz et al, 2021). Over the past decade, the ability of Moldovan citizens to acquire Romanian citizenship has played an essential role in the intensification of migration to other European countries (dual citizenship).…”

Section: Out-migration Is the Main Cause Of Depopulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Currently, more than one million Moldovan citizens are living abroad (about 26% of the population). Levels of labour and of youth emigration are particularly high in Moldova (Gagauz et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Eastern Europe, migration has become the key factor in the overall population dynamics of the region (Sobotka and Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, 2021). Scholars have observed that when population decline is driven by out-migration, natural decrease intensifies due to the deterioration of the age-sex structure, as most international migrants are young (Gagauz et al, 2021;Mihaiu, 2020). At the same time, scientists believe that depopulation is difficult to reverse, especially in the countries experiencing significant international migration and human capital losses (Lutz and Gailey, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration

Gagauz¹,

Tabac²,

Pahomii³

2023

Populationyearbook

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In Moldova, there has been a long-term decline in the population, mainly due to high levels of emigration. The article presents an analysis of population dynamics in Moldova over the last three decades, and estimates the contributions of fertility, mortality and migration to this process. Using population censuses, data on the population with usual residence, vital statistics and data on Moldovan immigrants from the host countries’ statistical institutes,we estimate population changes between 1991–2021, and present demographic projections up to 2040. The results show that migration outflows account for more than 90% of the depopulation trend, with high levels of premature mortality accelerating the natural decline. The fall in births is associated with a decrease in the reproductive-age population. The total fertility rate has been decreasing gradually, while the cohort fertility rates have not fallen below 1.75 live births per woman. Past migration and low fertility are projected to result in long-term population decline. Demographic ageing is expected to increase. While population decline cannot be stopped, its scale can be limited through reductions in emigration and mortality. This study on population decline in Moldova helps to complete the demographic picture of Europe in the 20th century and into the 21st century.

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Section: Out-migration Is the Main Cause Of Depopulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration

Gagauz¹,

Tabac²,

Pahomii³

2023

Populationyearbook

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“…Female life expectancy gained 5.0 years over the same period and reached 75.0 years in 2019 (Penina et al, 2022). The COVID-19 pandemic reduced life expectancy in 2020 for both males and females by approximately 1.0 years (Gagauz et al, 2021). Previous studies on cause-specific mortality trends in Moldova showed that the long-term decline and short-term fluctuations in Moldovan life expectancy were mainly driven by three causes of death: diseases of the circulatory system and digestive system in both sexes and external causes of death in men.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Changes in Life Expectancy and Causes of Death in Moldova After Independence

Penina

2022

Economy and Sociology

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After the period of fluctuations related to the socio-economic crisis of the 1990s, life expectancy at birth in Moldova mainly stagnated until 2005 in females and 2010 in males. Recent trends show moderate improvements until the COVID-19 pandemic. Data and methods: regional data on mortality by cause were analysed for three five-year periods around 1993, 2004 and 2014. Differences in life expectancy at birth between the leading districts and the lagging districts were decomposed by age and cause. Results: A gradient in life expectancy was revealed between the northern districts and the municipality of Chisinau, where mortality is low, and the belt of the districts located mainly in the centre, where mortality is high. Cardiovascular and digestive diseases in both sexes, as well as external causes of death in males were responsible for the interregional mortality disparity. The recent growth in life expectancy was accompanied by an increasing interregional disparity of mortality from cardiovascular diseases among the elderly and external causes of death among the middle-aged. The most significant progress was in the municipality of Chisinau, while in the rest of the country, it mainly reflected the recovery from the severe socio-economic crisis of the 1990s. Conclusions: The districts falling within the red belt of high mortality have made no progress in terms of population health since independence. In this geographic area, preventive measures aimed at reducing the risk factors associated with cardiovascular disease, liver cirrhosis and external causes of death are needed.

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“…Основной причиной такого падения является массовая эмиграция, доля которой в общем объёме сокращения населения в указанный период превышает 90%. Согласно демографическому прогнозу Центра демографических исследований, депопуляция продолжится и в следующие два десятилетия, более того, темпы сокращения численности населения могут увеличиться (Gagauz et al 2021).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Национальные Трансфертные Счета Молдовы-2019: Особенности Построения И Некоторые Результаты

Gagauz¹,

Прохницки²

2022

ДО

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В ближайшие десятилетия в Молдове, как и других странах Восточной Европы, демографическое старение населения будет оказывать существенное влияние на экономическое развитие, вызывая необходимость совершенствования социальной политики с целью уменьшения негативных последствий демографических изменений и обеспечения достойного уровня жизни различных поколений. Национальные трансфертные счета (НТС) позволяют выявить взаимосвязь между возрастной структурой населения, экономическим поведением в течение жизненного цикла и системой межпоколенческой поддержки, определить роль государства и частного сектора в покрытии расходов на потребление. В данной статье представлен опыт построения НТС для Молдовы на основе данных 2019 г. Согласно полученным результатам, размер дефицита экономического жизненного цикла (ДЭЖЦ) в 2019 г. составил 67,6 млрд леев или 59,1% от общего трудового дохода и 32,1% от общего объема ВВП. Трудовые доходы населения Молдовы превышают потребление в коротком возрастном промежутке 30-48 лет (19 лет), что обусловлено низким уровнем занятости населения и высоким уровнем международной миграции. Объем частных текущих трансфертов на покрытие ДЭЖЦ гораздо больше государственных. Переводы международных мигрантов (трансферты между домохозяйствами) играют существенную роль в покрытии ДЭЖЦ.

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Populația Republicii Moldova la 30 de ani de independență: provocări principale și politici necesare

Cited by 14 publications

References 0 publications

Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration

Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration

Regional Changes in Life Expectancy and Causes of Death in Moldova After Independence

Национальные Трансфертные Счета Молдовы-2019: Особенности Построения И Некоторые Результаты

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