Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States

Dalton, Michael; O’Neill, Brian C.; Prskawetz, Alexia; Jiang, Leiwen; Pitkin, John

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2006.07.002

Cited by 202 publications

(121 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…In a similar vein, with respect to the relationship between carbon emissions and population, Casey and Galor (2017) provide empirical evidence that a reduction in fertility rates, while increases income per capita, diminishes carbon emissions. Likewise, Dalton et al (2008) provides an analysis of the effect of population aging on U.S energy use and carbon emissions. None of these studies point to the impact of demographic patterns on savings rates and, subsequently, on climate policies.…”

Section: Further Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Global Demographic Change and Climate Policies

Gerlagh

Jaimes

Motavasseli³

2017

SSRN Journal

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Between 1950 and 2017, world average life expectancy increased from below-50 to above-70, while the fertility rate dropped from 5 to about 2.5. We develop and calibrate an analytic climate-economy model with overlapping generations to study the effect of such demographic change on capital markets and optimal climate policies. Our model replicates findings from the OLG-demography literature, such as a rise in households' savings, and a declining rate of return to capital. We also find that demographic change raises the social cost of carbon, at 2020, from 28 euro/tCO 2 in a model that abstracts from demography, to 94 euro/tCO 2 in our calibrated model. JEL-Codes: H230, J110, Q540, Q580. Terms of use: Documents in

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Section: Further Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Global Demographic Change and Climate Policies

Gerlagh

Jaimes

Motavasseli³

2017

SSRN Journal

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“…They have been used to study possible emissions in the absence of mitigation policy as well as the costs and other consequences of emissions reduction strategies. Although nearly all scenarios include assumptions about future population growth, none has explicitly investigated the separate effect of demographic influences on emissions, with the exception of a few studies at the country level (13).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Here, we assess the global implications of demographic change by developing a set of economic growth, energy use, and emissions scenarios using an energy-economic growth model, the Population-Environment-Technology model (PET) (13).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions

O’Neill

Dalton

Fuchs

et al. 2010

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

Self Cite

410

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Substantial changes in population size, age structure, and urbanization are expected in many parts of the world this century. Although such changes can affect energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenario analyses have either left them out or treated them in a fragmentary or overly simplified manner. We carry out a comprehensive assessment of the implications of demographic change for global emissions of carbon dioxide. Using an energyeconomic growth model that accounts for a range of demographic dynamics, we show that slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. We also find that aging and urbanization can substantially influence emissions in particular world regions.climate change | energy | integrated assessment | population | households S tatistical analyses of historical data suggest that population growth has been one driver of emissions growth over the past several decades (1-3) and that urbanization (2), aging (3), and changes in household size (2) can also affect energy use and emissions. Demographers expect major changes in these dimensions of populations over the coming decades (4). Global population could grow by more than 3 billion by mid-century, with most of that difference accounted for by growing urban populations. Aging will occur in most regions, a result of declines in both fertility and mortality, and is expected to be particularly rapid in regions like China that have recently experienced sharp falls in fertility. The number of people per household is also declining as populations age and living arrangements shift away from multigeneration households toward nuclear families.Despite these expectations, explicit analysis of the effect of demographic change on future emissions has been extremely limited (5). Early exploratory analyses considered only population size or total numbers of households (6, 7) and used simple multiplicative models (8) that did not account for important relationships between population and economic and technological factors. Furthermore, these early models used little or no regional disaggregation, an important consideration given that, with some exceptions including the United States, population growth tends to be highest where per capita emissions are lowest.More recently, a large emissions scenario literature (9) has developed that informs a wide range of climate change analysis and related policy discussions. Model sophistication and scope has increased substantially over time. Scenarios typically span timescales of decades to centuries, include emissions of multiple gases and aerosols from a range of sectors, including land use, and consider a wide range of emissions drivers (10-12). They have been used to study possible emissions in the absence of mitigation policy as well as the costs and other consequences of emissions reduction strategies. Although nearly all scenarios include assumptions about future population growth, none has explicitly investig...

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“…[4,5], providing foundations for further researches on national and global carbon emissions, etc. [6][7][8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation and Prediction of Decarbonated Development in Tourist Attractions Associated with Low-carbon Economy

et al. 2014

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Abstract:In the field of tourism, the development of tourist attractions is gradually playing a crucial role in tourism economy, regional economy and national economy. While tourism economy is stimulated by growing demand, tourist attractions have been facing the situation that ecological environment is becoming fragile and environmental protection is increasingly difficult in China. As low-carbon economy is highlighted more than ever before, how to develop green economy, how to apply theories and technologies, which are related to low-carbon economy, to push forward decarbonation, to protect the ecological environment, and to boost the development of tourism economy have become the core problems for the sustainable development of tourist attractions system. In addition, this system has drawn the attention of scholars and practitioners in recent years. On the basis of low-carbon economy, this paper tries to define the decarbonated development goals and the connotation of tourist attractions system. In addition, it also discusses system structure associated with system dynamics and system engineering, and constructs system simulation model. In the end, a case study is conducted, that is, to predict the development trend of Jiuzhai Valley by adopting the constructed system so as to extend the previous research on low-carbon tourism and to guide the decarbonated development in tourist attractions.

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Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States

Cited by 202 publications

References 36 publications

Global Demographic Change and Climate Policies

Global Demographic Change and Climate Policies

Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions

Simulation and Prediction of Decarbonated Development in Tourist Attractions Associated with Low-carbon Economy

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