Population-based analysis of inpatient vascular procedures and predicting future workload and implications for training

Abstract

Despite a conservative approach of using a population-based analysis of only inpatient procedures, there is a dramatic increase in the predicted vascular workload for the future. The vascular surgery training process will need to adapt to ensure an adequate number of fellowship-trained vascular surgeons is available to provide quality vascular care in the future.

Supply and demand: Will we have enough vascular surgeons by 2030?

“…For example, Jim et al analyzed trends in vascular procedures and predicted a 106% increase in inpatient vascular procedures alone by 2040. 6 Satiani et al did a workforce analysis and predicted a shortage of 399 surgeons by 2030. 5 Currently, the number of vascular surgery residency and fellowship positions represents a fraction of the total matches of 2014.…”

“…4 Vascular surgery is on track to have significant provider shortages over the next several decades as evidenced by several prior studies. 5,6 Via population and workload analysis, Satiani et al predict a shortage of 399 vascular surgeons by 2030 5 while Jim et al predict inpatient vascular surgeon workload will increase by more than double by 2040. 6 The likely predicted shortage of vascular surgeons is dependent on several factors.…”

“…5,6 Via population and workload analysis, Satiani et al predict a shortage of 399 vascular surgeons by 2030 5 while Jim et al predict inpatient vascular surgeon workload will increase by more than double by 2040. 6 The likely predicted shortage of vascular surgeons is dependent on several factors. The number of individuals entering and exiting the field, the prevalence of PVD, and the influence of risk factor rates on the demand for vascular procedures will play a significant role in supply and demand scenarios.…”

A survey of 0 + 5 vascular surgery residency candidates: Perceptions of an applicant pool

“…Several papers [7][8][9][10] have highlighted the importance of increasing the number of VS trainees in light of conservative analyses that predict the shortage of vascular surgeons in the near future to be fairly substantial. [11][12][13] Understanding the decision-making processes of thirdand fourth-year medical students during career path selection can be vital in maintaining this interest in VS and developing new recruitment strategies.…”

Perspectives on endovascular training in traditional 5+2 vascular surgery fellowship training programs

“…1 Another study of the wider population represented in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) database showed that endovascular aortic procedures nearly tripled in the period between 1997 and 2008, while at the same time open aortic procedures dropped by nearly half. 2 Consequently, new paradigms needed to be developed to train vascular surgery fellows in endovascular procedures. By 2004, endovascular training requirements were firmly established, and were in part the impetus towards lengthening the traditional fellowship from one to two years.…”