Population-Based Evidence of Climate Change Adaptation in an Endangered Plant Endemic to a Biodiversity Hotspot

Alarcón, Diego; Santos, David M.; Arroyo, Mary T. K.

doi:10.3390/plants12102017

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 86 publications

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“…Regions characterized by a high abundance of unique species [28], known as endemics (species exclusive restricted to a particular location) and facing substantial habitat loss, are frequently identified as "hotspots" [29]. Conversely, an SDM provides a distinct perspective by identifying the most favorable climatic zone or region for endemic plants, referred to as a biodiversity hotspot [30]. Biodiversity hotspots represent ecosystems of utmost priority for conservation due to their notable concentration of endemic species, exposure to high-impact threats [31], and heightened susceptibility to climate change [32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Endemic Species Conservation Hotspots Based on Species Distribution Models in Swat Region, Hindu Kush Pakistan

Ali,

Baharanchi

et al. 2024

Land

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For the effective conservation of plant species, it is imperative to manage habitat loss and fragmentation by establishing a protected area network that comprehensively encompasses their habitat. In this study, we identified the suitable habitats for some endemic plant species in the Swat District, Pakistan, to conduct a thorough analysis of proposed protected areas (hotspot areas). Utilizing data from a recent botanical survey, environmental parameters from World-Clim, and various other sources, we determined the habitat of each species using the MaxEnt species distribution model. The modeled habitat suitability for each species were combined to generate maps illustrating endemic richness (hotspots), as well as to prioritize areas based on conservation value and habitat suitability. Future climate projections spanning from 2000 to 2050 were acquired from the WorldClim database Nineteen bioclimatic variables were assessed, incorporating data from three global climate models: CCSM4, HadGEM2-AO, and MPI-ESM-LR. We modeled seven endemic species from the Swat District and, by combining their maps, found three hotspot areas which show more environmental suitability under future climatic conditions. The future model forecasts a significant decrease in population density by the year 2050. Currently, these species exhibit their highest density along the eastern and southern borders of the valley, particularly in the Karakar, Elum border, Mankial Kalam, and Gabral Kalam areas. The anticipated alterations in density and distribution could have a considerable impact not only on the tree species but also on the associated sub flora.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Endemic Species Conservation Hotspots Based on Species Distribution Models in Swat Region, Hindu Kush Pakistan

Ali,

Baharanchi

et al. 2024

Land

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Integrated framework for dynamic conservation of bamboo forest in giant panda habitat under climate change

Shang,

Qin,

Yang

et al. 2024

Journal of Environmental Management

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Analyzing the Distribution Patterns of Endemic Quercus vulcanica (Boiss. et Heldr. ex) Kotschy in Türkiye Under Climate Change Using Ensemble Modeling

Koç,

Atalay Dutucu

2024

Forests

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Quercus vulcanica (Boiss. et Heldr. ex) Kotschy (Kasnak oak), one of the 18 Quercus species naturally distributed in Anatolia, is an endemic species with a restricted distribution range. In accordance with the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Endangered Species classification, Quercus vulcanica is designated as a species of low risk (LC: Least Concern). However, it is predicted that the habitat of Quercus vulcanica will narrow and that the species will become endangered as a result of potential climate change scenarios in the future. The aim of this study was to estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of Quercus vulcanica in Anatolia during the LGM, as well as to examine the impact of present and future climate changes on the species. In this context, principal component analysis was applied to 19 bioclimatic variables of the Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) climate model, with nine variables identified for use in modeling. Habitat suitability was estimated using the Biodiversity Modeling (BIOMOD) ensemble modeling method, which combines the results of nine different algorithms through the R package ‘biomod2’, applying both committee averaging and weighted average approaches. To evaluate the performance of the models, the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), True Skill Statistics (TSS), KAPPA and Boyce Index were calculated. The contributions of the environmental variables were determined on a per-algorithm-model basis. The results of the analyses show that the bioclimatic variables that contribute the most to the distribution of the species are Bio8. The modeling results show that Quercus vulcanica is capable of occupying suitable habitat areas across the majority of Anatolia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). It is anticipated that future projections will indicate a notable reduction in the extent of suitable habitat for the species, with the remaining areas confined to the vicinity of the Ilgaz Mountains, Köroğlu Mountains and Bolkar Mountains. Given the increasing destruction that Quercus vulcanica, an endemic plant, will be adversely affected by as a result of human impacts and climate change, it is of the highest importance to develop adaptation strategies with a view to protecting the species’ habitat and the sustainability of the species.

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Population-Based Evidence of Climate Change Adaptation in an Endangered Plant Endemic to a Biodiversity Hotspot

Cited by 3 publications

References 86 publications

Investigating Endemic Species Conservation Hotspots Based on Species Distribution Models in Swat Region, Hindu Kush Pakistan

Investigating Endemic Species Conservation Hotspots Based on Species Distribution Models in Swat Region, Hindu Kush Pakistan

Integrated framework for dynamic conservation of bamboo forest in giant panda habitat under climate change

Analyzing the Distribution Patterns of Endemic Quercus vulcanica (Boiss. et Heldr. ex) Kotschy in Türkiye Under Climate Change Using Ensemble Modeling

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