Population-based projections of blood supply and demand, China, 2017–2036

Abstract

ObjectiveTo estimate the long-term effect of the changing demography in China on blood supply and demand.MethodsWe developed a predictive model to estimate blood supply and demand during 2017–2036 in mainland China and in 31 province-level regions. Model parameters were obtained from World Population Prospects, China statistical yearbook 2016, China’s report on blood safety and records from a large tertiary hospital. Our main assumptions were stable age-specific per capita blood supply and demand over time.FindingsWe estimated that the change in demographic structure between 2016 (baseline year) and 2036 would result in a 16.0% decrease in blood supply (from 43.2 million units of 200 mL to 36.3 million units) and a 33.1% increase in demand (from 43.2 million units to 57.5 million units). In 2036, there would be an estimated shortage of 21.2 million units. An annual increase in supply between 0.9% and 1.8% is required to maintain a balance in blood supply and demand. This increase is not enough for every region as regional differences will increase, e.g. a blood demand/supply ratio ≥ 1.45 by 2036 is predicted in regions with large populations older than 65 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that increasing donations by 4.0% annually by people aged 18–34 years or decreasing the overall blood discard rate from 5.0% to 2.0% would not offset but help reduce the blood shortage.ConclusionMultidimensional strategies and tailored, coordinated actions are needed to deal with growing pressures on blood services because of China’s ageing population.

Establishment and assessment of a nomogram for predicting blood transfusion risk in posterior lumbar spinal fusion

“…Meanwhile, blood transfusion is by far the most effective way to treat the major blood loss in spinal surgeries [ 21 ]. However, blood shortage is an increasing problem within developing countries, especially in rural, underdeveloped areas of China [ 22 ]. Thus, early and accurate identification of the risk of blood transfusion is not only to save blood resources but also for better clinical outcome of patients.…”

Super Aging in South Korea Unstoppable but Mitigatable: A Sub-National Scale Population Projection for Best Policy Planning

“…The most urgent health matter would arguably be an immediate shortage of blood supply for medical transfusion ( Park et al 2006 ), which is also a critical problem in other East Asian countries, such as China due to its rapid aging ( Yu et al 2020 ). As mentioned earlier, advancement in medicine is a major cause of aging because such progress makes what used to be incurable now curable.…”

Improved long‐term time‐series predictions of total blood use data from England

“…Waste of blood in hospitals would be addressed by different models using information based on regional or hospital level data, which is beyond the scope of this study. 38 These findings of improved predictions, especially long-term predictions, using several time-series methods that are tailored to the specific data sets, potentially represent a significant advance in the techniques available to predict use. The improved predictions with reduced errors could allow greater efficiency in the call-up of donors, scheduling of donor sessions, and manufacturing and supply of RBCs to match demand.…”

“…This study uses national data to look at overall blood use where the primary purpose is to allow better short‐ and medium‐term matching of collection and demand. Waste of blood in hospitals would be addressed by different models using information based on regional or hospital level data, which is beyond the scope of this study 38 …”