Population Control Policies and Fertility Convergence

Silva, Tiloka de; Tenreyro, Silvana

doi:10.1257/jep.31.4.205

Cited by 71 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The number of school years for women increased markedly after 1970 in most regions, but increased less in Africa [63]. The decrease in TFR might also arise indirectly via school year correlations with improved economy, family planning (FP) programs, and media attention to FP, factors which may also lead to smaller families [64][65][66][67].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More studies are needed of how FP programs started and progressed in different countries and religious settings. The role of media in changing gender norms and contraceptive use also needs further study [66,107].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Yet, in 2014, the mean values for program strength were similar in all four regions in our study. However, FP programs in Asia and Latin America started earlier, and many of them are considered successful ( [66], and references therein). Duration, change in social norms, institutional support and international funding are important for success of FP programs [27,40,46].…”

Section: Role Of Different Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs

2020

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Background: The world population is expected to increase greatly this century, aggravating current problems related to climate, health, food security, biodiversity, energy and other vital resources. Population growth depends strongly on total fertility rate (TFR), but the relative importance of factors that influence fertility needs more study. Methods: We analyze recent levels of fertility in relation to five factors: education (mean school years for females), economy (Gross Domestic Product, GDP, per capita), religiosity, contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR), and strength of family planning programs. We compare six global regions: E Europe, W Europe and related countries, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Arab States, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia. In total, 141 countries are included in the analysis. We estimate the strength of relationships between TFR and the five factors by correlation or regression and present the results graphically. Results: In decreasing order of strength, fertility (TFR) correlates negatively with education, CPR, and GDP per capita, and positively with religiosity. Europe deviates from other regions in several ways, e.g. TFR increases with education and decreases with religiosity in W Europe. TFR decreases with increasing strength of family planning programs in three regions, but only weakly so in a fourth, Sub-Saharan Africa (the two European regions lacked such programs). Most factors correlated with TFR are also correlated with each other. In particular, education correlates positively with GDP per capita but negatively with religiosity, which is also negatively related to contraception and GDP per capita. Conclusions: These results help identify factors of likely importance for TFR in global regions and countries. More work is needed to establish causality and relative importance of the factors. Our novel quantitative analysis of TFR suggests that religiosity may counteract the ongoing decline of fertility in some regions and countries.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Role Of Different Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs

2020

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“…Jahrhundert kann aus heutiger Sicht als wichtigste demographische Konsequenz der Erfüllung der Nachhaltigkeitsziele (SDGs) auf globaler Ebene angesehen werden (Abel et al, 2016 (Basten & Jiang, 2015, de Silva & Tenreyro, 2017, entfaltet Bildung ihre Wirkung auf freiwilliger Basis (Lutz, Butz & KC, 2014). In den Anfängen des Geburtenrückgangs führt ein höheres Bildungsniveau dazu, dass die Anzahl der Kinder überhaupt erst als auf einer persönlichen Entscheidung beruhend wahrgenommen wird (Coale, 1973).…”

Section: Geringeres Bevölkerungswachstum Als Auswirkung Der Sdgsunclassified

Umwelt und Gesellschaft. Herausforderung für Wissenschaft und Politik

2018

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Imprint: KIOES Opinions are published by the Commission for Interdisciplinary Ecological Studies (KIOES)of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (OeAW). KIOES publishes current opinions written, initiated or invited by KIOES related to topical subjects on an irregular basis in KIOES Opinions. The target audience includes scientists, policy makers and the public. Opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author(s), and they do not necessarily reflect in any way those of KIOES or OeAW. More information about KIOES and download of KIOES Opinions at Langfristige Prozesse im Fokus des LernensNachhaltigkeitsorientierte Konzepte wie jenes der Planetaren Grenzen aber ebenso der ökologische Fuß-abdruck und viele andere sind problematisch, weil sie Vermächtnisse ignorieren. Das sind jene Hinterlassenschaften früherer Eingriffe, die in Zukunft ArbeitsAbbildung 2: Menschenwürdiges Leben innerhalb der planetaren Grenzen muss das soziale Fundament sichern, ohne die planetaren Grenzen zu überschreiten. Dieser erwünschte Handlungsraum ist mit dem roten Ring, dem "Doughnut" markiert. Nach Raworth, 2012. • Innerhalb der SDGs gibt es global betrachtet weit mehr positive als negative Wechselwirkungen, vor allem bei den Zielen "Keine Armut" (SDG 1), "Gesundheit und Wohlergehen" (SDG 3), "Hochwertige Bildung" (SDG 4), "Weniger Ungleichheiten" (SDG 10), "Nachhaltiger Konsum und nachhaltige Produktion" (SDG 12) und "Maßnahmen zum Klimaschutz" (SDG 13). I n k l u s i v e u n d n a c h ha ltig e ökon om is c h e E n t w i c k l u n g• Zwischen den einzelnen SDGs zeigen sich weltweit gesehen sowohl positive als auch negative Interaktionen. Die Ziele "Keine Armut" (SDG 1) und "Gesundheit und Wohlergehen" (SDG 3) besitzen eine positive Beziehung mit den meisten anderen Zielen. Die SDG "Nachhaltiger Konsum und nachhaltige Produktion" (SDG 12) sowie "Leben an Land" (SDG 15) stehen mit anderen Zielen zumeist in einem Spannungsverhältnis.• • In der Länderperspektive besitzt das Ziel "Gesundheit und Wohlergehen" (SDG 3) die meisten positiven Wechselbeziehungen mit anderen Nachhaltigkeitszielen. Der potenziell größte Positivhebel besteht dabei zwischen den Zielen "Gesundheit und Wohlergehen" und "Sauberes Wasser und Sanitäreinrichtungen" (SDG 3 und 6 https://www.springerprofessional.de/nachhaltigkeit/ressource/konsum-als-hemmschuh-fuer-nachhaltigen-fortschritt/15420090 7 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/2017EF000632 6), mit einer möglichen Auswirkung auf rund 3 Milliarden Menschen.• Der größte vermeintliche Zielkonflikt besteht zwischen den Zielen "Gesundheit und Wohlergehen" und "Nachhaltiger Konsum und nachhaltige Produktion" (SDG 3 und 12 Handlungsmöglichkeiten in Sektoren der WasserwirtschaftIm Folgenden werden für die wichtigsten Sektoren der Wasserwirtschaft in Österreich mögliche Handlungsoptionen in den nächsten Jahrzehnten zusammengefasst (siehe auch ÖWAV, 2015, Blöschl et al., 2011. Der Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auf den Umgang mit Risiken auf unterschiedlichen Zeit und Raumskalen. Die Sektor...

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“…Huang 2017;De Silva and Tenreyro 2017;Mauldin 1982;Wang and Zhang 2018), while others hold the view that the OCP may have only had a limited short-term effect on fertility around 1979, but little or no additional effect in the long run (Y. Cai 2010;Alkema et al 2011;Zhang 2017). Other factors may also reshape people's reproductive behavior, such as socioeconomic factors(Alfano 2017;Anukriti 2018;Schultz 1973) and women's empowerment(Duflo 2012;Upadhyay et al 2014).…”

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confidence: 99%

Is China’s Low Fertility Rate Caused by the Population Control Policy?

2020

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Whether China's low fertility rate is the consequence of the country's strict population control policy is a puzzling question. This paper attempts to disentangle the Chinese population control policy's impacts on the fertility rate from socioeconomic factors using the synthetic control method proposed by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003). The results indicate that the population control policy significantly decreased China's birth rate after the "Later, Longer, and Fewer" policy came into force, but had little effect on the birth rate in the long run. We estimate that between 164.2 million and 268.3 million prevented births from 1971 to 2016 can be attributed to the Chinese population control policy. In addition, we implement a placebo study to check the validity of the method and confirm the robustness of the paper's conclusions. JEL CLASSIFICATIONS: C21; J13; Q566 The remainder of the paper is arranged as follows. In section 2, we introduce background information on the Chinese population control policy and its potential influences. In section 3, we describe the data used in this paper. In section 4, we present the econometric methods that are applied in this paper, namely the SCM and the placebo study. In section 5, we present the main empirical results. The last section presents the concluding remarks and related discussions.

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Population Control Policies and Fertility Convergence

Cited by 71 publications

References 27 publications

Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs

Human fertility in relation to education, economy, religion, contraception, and family planning programs

Umwelt und Gesellschaft. Herausforderung für Wissenschaft und Politik

Is China’s Low Fertility Rate Caused by the Population Control Policy?

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