Population density and proximity to junior developmental teams affect the development of National Hockey League draftees

Abstract

Inconsistencies in community size effects found between and within countries (Baker et al Eur J Sport Sci. 2009;9:329-339; Bruner et al J Sports Sci. 2011;29:1337-1344; Wattie et al J Sports Sci. 2018;36:436-444) suggest population size may not be an accurate predictor of athlete development and that other proxies of early environmental characteristics are needed. Researchers have begun to explore the influence of population density and proximity to local sport clubs on athlete development in European countries; however, similar analysis remains to be conducted in Canadian ice hockey. The current study focused on National Hockey League (NHL) draftees and explored whether population density and proximity to Canadian Hockey League teams were associated with the number of draftees produced. Linear regression analyses showed a significant positive relationship between population density and the development of draftees in all provincial regions; however, a significant negative relationship between proximity to CHL teams and NHL draftee development was observed in four out of six provincial regions (British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and the Atlantic Provinces). Moreover, population density appeared to be a better predictor of NHL talent development than proximity to CHL teams. Future research may benefit from exploring the effects of these two variables within population size categories, as well as between different regions within provinces.

Female Youth Soccer Participation and Continued Engagement: Associations With Community Size, Community Density, and Relative Age

“…While less densely populated communities may offer greater opportunities for free play and organized participation during the earlier stages of athlete development, the benefits of this environmental context may diminish if these communities are not populated enough to provide the necessary resources for higher levels of training and skill development (e.g., sport facilities, coaches and competitors; Curtis and Birch, 1987;Côté et al, 2006). More specifically, this deviation in participation trends across the developmental years could suggest different advantages associated with different environmental contexts at different timepoints; possibly reconciling the current findings with Farah et al (2018). This hypothesis is worthy of further investigation in future studies.…”

“…However, inherent differences in the sport system, geography, population distribution, and other potentially relevant factors make comparisons difficult between North American and European contexts. Specific to the Canadian context, Farah et al (2018) reported an increased likelihood of being drafted into the National Hockey League for athletes from communities with higher population densities; but, the focus of the current study was on participation and continued engagement vs. athlete achievement.…”

“…In general, mechanisms of CS and CD are largely unknown and represent promising avenues of investigation (Hancock et al, 2018;Wattie et al, 2018). Future research in this sample population and others should investigate the contributions to both high and low participation and ongoing engagement, such as the number of/proximity to soccer facilities and open spaces for unorganized play; distances traveled both within (i.e., between home and club locations) and between neighboring communities (i.e., for competition between elite teams); the organizational structures and philosophies of local clubs (as recommended in Fraser-Thomas et al, 2010), and proximity to elite teams (Farah et al, 2018;Rossing et al, 2018). This type of research can inform strategies to increase participation at the local level.…”

“…However, a trend toward larger, more densely populated cities was found for elite (>30,000 inhabitants; >250 people/km 2 ) and national (>50,000 inhabitants; ≥1,000 people/km 2 ) football players, while mid-sized communities appeared to be best for the development of elite (between 30,000 and 100,000 inhabitants; 250-1,000 people/km 2 ) and national (between 30,000 and 50,000 inhabitants; no optimal population density identified) handball athletes. Similarly, Farah et al (2018)…”

Mechanisms explaining the birthplace effect for male elite football players

“…Danish research has shown that the presence or proximity of talent development clubs has a positive effect on the number of young players reaching elite status in both handball and football (Rossing et al, 2016(Rossing et al, , 2018. On the other hand, Farah et al (2018) did not find a positive effect of the proximity of an elite club on the chances of Canadian players reaching the NHL.…”