Population Density and Regional Differences Determine the Probability of COVID-19 Infection

Karaki, Hideaki

doi:10.20965/jdr.2022.p0061

JDR

2022

DOI: 10.20965/jdr.2022.p0061

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Population Density and Regional Differences Determine the Probability of COVID-19 Infection

Hideaki Karaki¹

Abstract: With the passage of almost two years since the outbreak of COVID-19, the characteristics of the infection have become clearer. It is now known that the peaks of infections recur approximately every four months, the probability of infection varies greatly by region, and the probability of infection correlates with population density.

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Cited by 4 publications

References 9 publications

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Analyzing the worldwide progression of COVID-19 cases and deaths using nonlinear mixed-effects model

Koshimichi,

Hisaka

2024

PLoS ONE

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COVID-19 is an infectious disease that continues to spread worldwide. A precise estimation of the cases and deaths due to COVID-19 would allow for appropriate consideration of healthcare resource allocation, public health response, and vaccination and economic planning, to minimize social damage. In this study, we analyzed the progression of COVID-19 cases and deaths until January 2022 in 156 countries using a nonlinear mixed-effect model based on the SIR framework. Given the major changes in mortality from infection, risk of re-infection and social responses, the analysis was limited to the period before the emergence of the Omicron variant. The impact of infection prevention measures in various countries was assessed, with a specific focus on estimating the effectiveness of lockdowns, where the effect was assumed to change over time. By accounting for excess mortality, our analysis allowed the estimation of unreported cases and deaths, and thus providing a more comprehensive understanding of the impact of pandemic. In the analysis, we identified gross domestic product (GDP), proportion of people aged 65 years or older, latitude of the capital city on transmissibility of infection, and city population and cardiovascular death rate on mortality rate as significant influencing factors. Furthermore, the differences in transmissibility and mortality rates by variants and the effect of vaccination on the mortality rate were assessed. The transmissibility has increased by odds ratios of 1.2 to 1.4 in Beta, Gamma, and Delta variants; mortality rate has increased by odds ratios of 1.7, 2.2, and 1.4 in Beta, Gamma, and Delta variants, respectively; and vaccination decreased the mortality rate by odds ratios of 0.4 and 0.1 in Delta and other variants, respectively.

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Analyzing the worldwide progression of COVID-19 cases and deaths using nonlinear mixed-effects model

Koshimichi,

Hisaka

2024

PLoS ONE

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Information Seeking and COVID-19 Preventive Behaviors: A Comparison Between Immigrants and the Host Population in Japan

2023

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Little is known about information seeking and its influence on preventive behaviors among immigrants in Japan, despite their vulnerabilities during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study investigated information seeking about COVID-19, and examined differences with compliance with preventive measures between immigrants and the host population in Japan based on an Internet survey conducted in October 2021. We used chi-squared tests to determine the difference in information seeking and preventive behaviors between the two groups, and Poisson regression with robust standard errors to examine the association between information seeking and compliance with preventive measures. Our results show that, although the overall tendencies of information seeking and the preventive behaviors of immigrants were similar to those of the Japanese, significant differences were identified in some behavior: immigrants were more likely to acquire COVID-19 information from social networking services (SNS) and official websites in Japan, and maintain physical distance and ventilation than Japanese locals. Furthermore, immigrants’ sources of information diversified according to their sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., educational level, Japanese language skills, length of residence in Japan, and country or region of origin). Additionally, the effects of information seeking on preventive actions against COVID-19 differed according to the information sources; some information sources (e.g., SNS) had different impacts on preventive behaviors between immigrants and Japanese locals. Obtaining information from traditional media and Japanese official websites increases engagement with all five preventive measures among immigrants and four measures among the Japanese. The study highlights the importance of customized health policies for immigrants according to their behavioral tendencies.

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Impact of COVID-19 Countermeasures on South Korean Citizens’ Behavior and Psychological Changes: An Online Survey Between the First Waves of the Pandemic

Kuroha,

Flinkman,

Kondo

et al. 2024

J. Disaster Res.

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This study analyzed behavioral changes in South Korean individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic due to movement restrictions and examined their psychological effects. Attributes considered include age and gender, place of residence, and characteristics of the residential environment and communities they came into contact with, which are considered important factors in individuals’ psychological changes. The results showed that in terms of psychological change, the negative effects were more significant for attributes such as age and gender than for spatial characteristics such as residential area and type of residence. In addition, depression was found in specific gender and age groups. In particular, those in their 20s were found to be more depressed than those in their 30s and 40s, even though they were less prone infection with COVID-19 than older adults. Through the findings of this study, we have discovered materials and factors that should be taken into account when preparing policies to limit the motion of people in circumstances similar to a pandemic.

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Population Density and Regional Differences Determine the Probability of COVID-19 Infection

Cited by 4 publications

References 9 publications

Analyzing the worldwide progression of COVID-19 cases and deaths using nonlinear mixed-effects model

Analyzing the worldwide progression of COVID-19 cases and deaths using nonlinear mixed-effects model

Information Seeking and COVID-19 Preventive Behaviors: A Comparison Between Immigrants and the Host Population in Japan

Impact of COVID-19 Countermeasures on South Korean Citizens’ Behavior and Psychological Changes: An Online Survey Between the First Waves of the Pandemic

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