Population Dynamics and Tropical Deforestation: State of the Debate and Conceptual Challenges

Abstract

What is the role of population in driving deforestation? This question was put forth as a discussion topic in the cyberseminar hosted by Population Environment Research Network (PERN) in Spring, 2003. Contributors from diverse backgrounds weighed in on the discussion, citing key factors in the population-deforestation nexus and suggesting further courses of action and research. Participants explored themes of their own choosing, with many coming to the forefront. Scale, time, and placebased effects were cited as areas in need of particular attention. Consumption patterns as the mechanism for spurring deforestation were discussed, drawing attention to the differential patterns associated with urban vs. rural demands on forest resources and land. The applicability of the IPAT formula and the influence of its component parts, affluence and technology, when operating in tandem with population, was debated. The relation of demographic factors to these pathways was critically examined. Institutional and governmental influence, such as infrastructure and policies affecting access and incentives, the valuation of resources, and institutional failures such as mismanagement and corruption emerged as a crucial set of factors. This article synthesizes the critical debates in the population-deforestation literature, makes suggestions for future paths of research, and discussed possible policy and direct action initiatives.

Environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation: evidence using GMM estimation for OECD and non-OECD regions

“…Previous research has suggested that increasing urbanization can flatten the EKC (Carr et al 2005); migration by farmers and workers to the cities can reduce the pressure on the forests from subsistence farming (Perz & Skole 2003, Rudel et al 2005. Additionally, urban areas tend to experience more substitution of wood products, both in terms of energy and building materials (Ehrhardt-Martinez et al 2002).…”

“…The constant clearing of forest land partly occurs to create more livestock ranches, which generally produce more money than do crops (Carr et al 2005, Perz & Skole 2003. Ranching, though, can foster a negative cycle of deforestation; forest land is cleared for livestock that then overgrazes the land and causes it to degrade, thus forcing further expansion of the ranches into more forest area (Allen & Barnes 1985).…”

“…The selling of forest products can enhance economic growth even as timber companies provide a considerable amount of jobs, thereby encouraging governments to stop protecting forests to take advantage of trade, as seen in countries like Brazil, Cameroon, and particularly in Southeast Asia (Carr et al 2005, Rudel et al 2005. The timber industry can choose to either clearcut entire forest tracks or engage in selective harvesting.…”

A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

“…The relationship between population growth and environmental changes is still an area of active debate (Alexandratos 2005;Carr et al 2005;Grau et al 2008;Jha and Bawa 2006;Nyssen et al 2004). In Ethiopia, population growth increases the demand for arable land and encourages the conversion of forests to agriculture.…”

Debt, Structural Adjustment and Deforestation: A Cross-National Study

“…These processes have the potential to increase deforestation-for a recent discussion of the literature on population dynamics and deforestation, see Carr, Suter, and Barbieri (2005). Rudel and Roper (1997) describe how deforestation comes about in their "immiserization" and "frontier" models of development.…”